气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Integrating new sea-level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing process

CCPortal

DOI	10.1002/wcc.706
	Integrating new sea-level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing process
	Nicholls R.J.; Hanson S.E.; Lowe J.A.; Slangen A.B.A.; Wahl T.; Hinkel J.; Long A.J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1757-7780
卷号	12 期号:3
英文摘要	The release of new and updated sea-level rise (SLR) information, such as from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Assessment Reports, needs to be better anticipated in coastal risk and adaptation assessments. This requires risk and adaptation assessments to be regularly reviewed and updated as needed, reflecting the new information but retaining useful information from earlier assessments. In this paper, updated guidance on the types of SLR information available is presented, including for sea-level extremes. An intercomparison of the evolution of the headline projected ranges across all the IPCC reports show an increase from the fourth and fifth assessments to the most recent “Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate” assessment. IPCC reports have begun to highlight the importance of potential high-end sea-level response, mainly reflecting uncertainties in the Greenland/Antarctic ice sheet components, and how this might be considered in scenarios. The methods that are developed here are practical and consider coastal risk assessment, adaptation planning, and long-term decision-making to be an ongoing process and ensure that despite the large uncertainties, pragmatic adaptation decisions can be made. It is concluded that new sea-level information should not be seen as an automatic reason for abandoning existing assessments, but as an opportunity to review (i) the assessment's robustness in the light of new science and (ii) the utility of proactive adaptation and planning strategies, especially over the more uncertain longer term. This article is categorized under: Assessing Impacts of Climate Change > Scenario Development and Application. © 2021 The Authors. WIREs Climate Change published by Wiley Periodicals LLC.
关键词	adaptation coastal planning sea-level rise sea-level scenarios
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Risk assessment; Risk perception; Sea level; Adaptation decisions; Changing climate; Intercomparisons; Intergovernmental panel on climate changes; Long-term decisions; Planning strategies; Proactive adaptations; Scenario development; Climate change; adaptive management; climate change; coastal zone management; numerical model; risk assessment; sea level change; uncertainty analysis; Antarctic Ice Sheet; Antarctica; Arctic; Greenland; Greenland Ice Sheet
来源期刊	Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/249638
作者单位	Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich, United Kingdom; School of Engineering, University of Southampton, Southampton, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre @Reading, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; Department of Estuarine and Delta Systems, NIOZ Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research, Utrecht University, Yerseke, Netherlands; Civil, Environmental, and Construction Engineering and National Center for Integrated Coastal Research, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, United States; Global Climate Forum (GCF) and Division of Resource Economics at Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute and Berlin Workshop in Institutional Analysis of Social-Ecological Systems (WINS), Humboldt-University, Berlin, Germany; Department of Geography, Durham University, Durham, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nicholls R.J.,Hanson S.E.,Lowe J.A.,et al. Integrating new sea-level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing process[J],2021,12(3).
APA	Nicholls R.J..,Hanson S.E..,Lowe J.A..,Slangen A.B.A..,Wahl T..,...&Long A.J..(2021).Integrating new sea-level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing process.Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change,12(3).
MLA	Nicholls R.J.,et al."Integrating new sea-level scenarios into coastal risk and adaptation assessments: An ongoing process".Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change 12.3(2021).