气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Risk-opportunity analysis for transformative policy design and appraisal

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102359
	Risk-opportunity analysis for transformative policy design and appraisal
	Mercure J.-F.; Sharpe S.; Vinuales J.E.; Ives M.; Grubb M.; Lam A.; Drummond P.; Pollitt H.; Knobloch F.; Nijsse F.J.M.M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	70
英文摘要	The climate crisis demands a strong response from policy-makers worldwide. The current global climate policy agenda requires technological change, innovation, labour markets and the financial system to be led towards an orderly and rapid low-carbon transition. Yet progress has been slow and incremental. Inadequacies of policy appraisal frameworks used worldwide may be significant contributors to the problem, as they frequently fail to adequately account for the dynamics of societal and technological change. Risks are underestimated, and the economic opportunities from innovation are generally not assessed in practice. Here, we identify root causes of those inadequacies and identify them to structural features of standard analysis frameworks. We use a review of theoretical principles of complexity science and the science of dynamical systems and formulate a generalisation of existing frameworks for policy analysis and the appraisal of outcomes of proposed policy strategies, to help better identify and frame situations of transformational change. We use the term “risk-opportunity analysis” to capture the generalised approach, in which conventional economic cost-benefit analysis is a special case. New guiding principles for policy-making during dynamic and transformational change are offered. © 2021 The Authors
关键词	Climate policy Complexity science Evolutionary economics Policy appraisal Public policy-making Science-policy interface
语种	英语
scopus关键词	economic conditions; policy analysis; policy approach; policy making; risk assessment; technological change
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/249584
作者单位	Global Systems Institute, University of ExeterUK, United Kingdom; Cambridge Centre for Energy, Environment and Natural Resources Governance, University of CambridgeUK, United Kingdom; Cambridge Econometrics, Cambridge, UK, United Kingdom; Institute for Innovation and Public Purpose, UCLUK, United Kingdom; Institute for New Economic Thinking, Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK, United Kingdom; Smith School of Enterprise and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK, United Kingdom; Institute for Sustainable Resources, University College LondonUK, United Kingdom; Department of Economics, Faculty of Social Sciences, University of Macao, E21 Taipa, Macau, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mercure J.-F.,Sharpe S.,Vinuales J.E.,et al. Risk-opportunity analysis for transformative policy design and appraisal[J],2021,70.
APA	Mercure J.-F..,Sharpe S..,Vinuales J.E..,Ives M..,Grubb M..,...&Nijsse F.J.M.M..(2021).Risk-opportunity analysis for transformative policy design and appraisal.Global Environmental Change,70.
MLA	Mercure J.-F.,et al."Risk-opportunity analysis for transformative policy design and appraisal".Global Environmental Change 70(2021).