气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Assessing future vulnerability and risk of humanitarian crises using climate change and population projections within the INFORM framework

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102393
	Assessing future vulnerability and risk of humanitarian crises using climate change and population projections within the INFORM framework
	Marzi S.; Mysiak J.; Essenfelder A.H.; Pal J.S.; Vernaccini L.; Mistry M.N.; Alfieri L.; Poljansek K.; Marin-Ferrer M.; Vousdoukas M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	71
英文摘要	INFORM Risk Index is a global indicator-based disaster risk assessment tool that combines hazards, exposure, vulnerability and lack of coping capacity indicators with the purpose to support humanitarian crisis management decisions considering the current climate and population. In this exploratory study, we extend the Index to include future climate change and population projections using RCP 8.5 climate projections of coastal flood, river flood and drought, and SSP3 and SSP5 population projections for the period 2036 to 2065. For the three hazards considered, annually 1.3 billion people (150% increase), 1.8 billion people (249% increase) and 1.5 billion people (197% increase) in the mid-21st century are projected to be exposed under the 2015, SSP3 and SSP5 population estimates, respectively. Drought shows the highest exposure levels followed by river flood and then coastal flood, with some regional differences. The largest exposed population is projected in Asia, while the largest percent changes are projected in Africa and Oceania. Countries with largest current and projected risk including non-climatic factors are generally located in Africa, West and South Asia and Central America. An uncertainty analysis of the extended index shows that it is generally robust and not influenced by the methodological choices. The projected changes in risk and coping capacity (vulnerability) due to climate change are generally greater than those associated with population changes. Countries in Europe, Western and Northern Asia and Africa tend to show higher reduction levels in vulnerability (lack of coping capacity) required to nullify the adverse impacts of the projected amplified hazards and exposure. The required increase in coping capacity (decreased vulnerability) can inform decision-making processes on disaster risk reduction and adaptation options to maintain manageable risk levels at global and national scale. Overall, the extended INFORM Risk Index is a means to integrate Disaster Risk Reduction and Climate Change Adaptation policy agendas to create conditions for greater policy impact, more efficient use of resources and more effective action in protecting life, livelihoods and valuable assets. © 2021 The Authors
关键词	Climate change adaptation Disaster risk reduction Indicator-based assessments INFORM Risk Index MRE measures Ordered weighted averaging
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; crisis management; decision making; disaster management; future prospect; risk assessment; uncertainty analysis; vulnerability; Africa; Central America; Europe; South Asia; Indicator indicator; Oceania
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/249548
作者单位	Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change and Ca’ Foscari University, via della Libertà, 12, Venice Marghera, 30175, Italy; Department of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, Loyola Marymount University, 1 LMU Dr, Los Angeles, CA 90045, United States; Fincons SpA external service provider of European Commission Joint Research Centre, Via E. Fermi 2749, Ispra (VA), I - 21027, Italy; Department of Economics, Ca’ Foscari University, Cannaregio 873/b, Venice, 30121, Italy; Department of Public Health, Environments and Society (PHES), London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine (LSHTM), London, UK WC1H 9SH, United Kingdom; European Commission Joint Research Centre, Via E. Fermi 2749, Ispra (VA), I – 21027, Italy; CIMA Research Foundation, University Campus of Savona, Via Armando Magliotto, 2, Savona, 17100, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Marzi S.,Mysiak J.,Essenfelder A.H.,et al. Assessing future vulnerability and risk of humanitarian crises using climate change and population projections within the INFORM framework[J],2021,71.
APA	Marzi S..,Mysiak J..,Essenfelder A.H..,Pal J.S..,Vernaccini L..,...&Vousdoukas M..(2021).Assessing future vulnerability and risk of humanitarian crises using climate change and population projections within the INFORM framework.Global Environmental Change,71.
MLA	Marzi S.,et al."Assessing future vulnerability and risk of humanitarian crises using climate change and population projections within the INFORM framework".Global Environmental Change 71(2021).