气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Projecting long-term armed conflict risk: An underappreciated field of inquiry?

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2021.102423
	Projecting long-term armed conflict risk: An underappreciated field of inquiry?
	de Bruin S.P.; Hoch J.M.; von Uexkull N.; Buhaug H.; Demmers J.; Visser H.; Wanders N.
发表日期	2022
ISSN	0959-3780
卷号	72
英文摘要	Little research has been done on projecting long-term conflict risks. Such projections are currently neither included in the development of socioeconomic scenarios or climate change impact assessments nor part of global agenda-setting policy processes. In contrast, in other fields of inquiry, long-term projections and scenario studies are established and relevant for both strategical agenda-setting and applied policies. Although making projections of armed conflict risk in response to climate change is surrounded by uncertainty, there are good reasons to further develop such scenario-based projections. In this perspective article we discuss why quantifying implications of climate change for future armed conflict risk is inherently uncertain, but necessary for shaping sustainable future policy agendas. We argue that both quantitative and qualitative projections can have a purpose in future climate change impact assessments and put out the challenges this poses for future research. © 2021 The Author(s)
关键词	Climate change Future armed conflict Scenario development Science-policy interface
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate change; climate effect; conflict management; environmental impact assessment; field method; long-term change; strategic approach; sustainability; sustainable development
来源期刊	Global Environmental Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/249540
作者单位	Department of Physical Geography, Utrecht University, Princetonlaan 8A, CB Utrecht, 3508, Netherlands; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Bezuidenhoutseweg 30, The Hague, 2594 AV, Netherlands; Department of Peace and Conflict Research, Uppsala University, Box 514, Uppsala, SE-751 20, Sweden; Peace Research Institute Oslo, Hausmanns Gate 3, Oslo, 0186, Norway; Department of Sociology and Political Science, Norwegian University of Science and Technology, Trondheim, NO-7491, Norway; Conflict Studies and History of International Relations, Faculty of Humanities, Utrecht University, Drift 10, BS Utrecht, 3512, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	de Bruin S.P.,Hoch J.M.,von Uexkull N.,et al. Projecting long-term armed conflict risk: An underappreciated field of inquiry?[J],2022,72.
APA	de Bruin S.P..,Hoch J.M..,von Uexkull N..,Buhaug H..,Demmers J..,...&Wanders N..(2022).Projecting long-term armed conflict risk: An underappreciated field of inquiry?.Global Environmental Change,72.
MLA	de Bruin S.P.,et al."Projecting long-term armed conflict risk: An underappreciated field of inquiry?".Global Environmental Change 72(2022).