气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Future impacts of ozone driven damages on agricultural systems

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117538
	Future impacts of ozone driven damages on agricultural systems
	Sampedro J.; Waldhoff S.T.; Van de Ven D.-J.; Pardo G.; Van Dingenen R.; Arto I.; del Prado A.; Sanz M.J.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1352-2310
卷号	231
英文摘要	Current ozone (O3) concentration levels entail significant damages in crop yields around the world. The reaction of the emitted precursors (mostly methane and nitrogen oxides) with solar radiation contribute to O3 levels that exceed established thresholds for crop damage. This paper shows current and projected (up to 2080) relative yield losses (RYLs) driven by O3 exposure for different crops and the associated economic damages applying dynamic crop production and prices that are calculated per region and period. We adjust future crop yields in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to reflect the RYLs and analyze the effects on agricultural markets. We find that the changes (generally reductions) in O3 precursor emissions in a reference scenario would reduce the agricultural damages, compared to present, for most of the regions, with a few exceptions including India, where higher future O3 concentrations have large negative impacts on crop yields. The annual economic impact of O3 driven losses from 2010 to 2080 are, in billion US dollars at 2015 prices ($B), 5.0–6.0, 9.8–18.8, 6.7–10.6 and 10.4–12.5 for corn, soybeans, rice and wheat, respectively, with the large losses for wheat and soybeans driven by their comparatively high responses to O3. When O3 effects are explicitly modelled as exogenous yield shocks in future periods, there is a direct impact in future agricultural markets. Therefore, the aggregated net present value (NPV) of crop production would be reduced around by $90.8 B at a global level. However, these changes are not distributed evenly across regions, and the net present market value of the crops would increase by up to $118.2 B (India) or decrease by up to $59.2 B (China). © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	Agricultural systems Integrated assessment Ozone Yield damages
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Agricultural robots; Commerce; Costs; Cultivation; Nitrogen oxides; Ozone; Agricultural markets; Agricultural system; Assessment models; Concentration levels; Crop production; Economic damages; Economic impacts; Net present value; Crops; ozone; agricultural application; concentration (composition); crop yield; economic impact; future prospect; pollution effect; pollution exposure; soybean; wheat; Africa; agricultural land; air pollutant; air pollution control; air quality; Article; Canada; China; concentration (parameter); crop production; environmental economics; environmental exposure; food insecurity; futurology; harvest; India; land use; maize; Middle East; priority journal; rice; solar radiation; Southeast Asia; soybean; United States; wheat; China; India; Glycine max; Triticum aestivum; Zea mays
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/249164
作者单位	Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, United States; Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Sede Building 1, 1st Floor Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country, Leioa, 48940, Spain; Joint Research Centre, Energy, Transport and Climate Directorate, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, Ispra, VA 21027, Italy
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sampedro J.,Waldhoff S.T.,Van de Ven D.-J.,et al. Future impacts of ozone driven damages on agricultural systems[J],2020,231.
APA	Sampedro J..,Waldhoff S.T..,Van de Ven D.-J..,Pardo G..,Van Dingenen R..,...&Sanz M.J..(2020).Future impacts of ozone driven damages on agricultural systems.ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT,231.
MLA	Sampedro J.,et al."Future impacts of ozone driven damages on agricultural systems".ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT 231(2020).