气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Estimation of the solar-induced natural variability of the tritium concentration of precipitation in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117605
	Estimation of the solar-induced natural variability of the tritium concentration of precipitation in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere
	László E.; Palcsu L.; Leelőssy Á.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1352-2310
卷号	233
英文摘要	Tritium has been long recognized as a useful tracer for the study of atmospheric transport, ocean circulation, and the global water cycle. In addition, the application of tritium measurements in various fields has grown significantly in the last few decades. Since 1963, the atmospheric test-ban treaty, bomb tritium concentrations in precipitation have significantly declined. Therefore, in the last two decades, global tritium concentration of precipitation (including anthropogenic and natural sources) has almost reached a steady-state level. The aim of this study is to estimate the temporal variation of the natural tritium concentration of precipitation during the past decades. To do this, we use a backward predicting time-series model that exploits the correlation between precipitation tritium concentration and the secondary neutron flux in the atmosphere. The measured tritium time series of 21 Northern and two Southern Hemispheric stations are used, while neutron monitor (NM) data, which are widely compared to the production rate of cosmogenic isotopes in the atmosphere, is used as an external variable for the model. Backward predicting SARIMAX statistical models are fit on the period 2001–2018 and provide estimates of the natural precipitation tritium levels for the bomb peak period 1960–2000. Evaluation of backward estimations on the 1990–2000 test period yields RMSE measures between 0.5 and 4.6 TU for four of the 23 investigated stations, pointing out locations where the neutron flux is a good predictor of the precipitation tritium concentration. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	Backward estimation Bomb-peak tritium SARIMAX Tritium concentration
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Atmospheric movements; Bombs (ordnance); Neutron flux; Time series; Atmospheric transport; Cosmogenic isotopes; Natural variability; Secondary neutrons; Southern Hemisphere; Time series modeling; Tritium concentration; Tritium measurements; Tritium; surface water; tritium; anthropogenic source; atmospheric chemistry; atmospheric transport; concentration (composition); estimation method; Northern Hemisphere; precipitation (climatology); solar radiation; Southern Hemisphere; tracer; tritium; air pollution; Article; comparative study; glacier; neutron; neutron radiation; precipitation; priority journal; seasonal variation; solar energy; Southern Hemisphere; stratosphere; time series analysis; troposphere; water cycle
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/249113
作者单位	Isotope Climatology and Environmental Research Centre (ICER), Institute for Nuclear Research, Bem tér 18/C, Debrecen, H-4026, Hungary; Department of Meteorology, Eötvös Loránd University, 1117 Pázmány Péter sétány 1/A., Budapest, Hungary
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	László E.,Palcsu L.,Leelőssy Á.. Estimation of the solar-induced natural variability of the tritium concentration of precipitation in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere[J],2020,233.
APA	László E.,Palcsu L.,&Leelőssy Á..(2020).Estimation of the solar-induced natural variability of the tritium concentration of precipitation in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere.ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT,233.
MLA	László E.,et al."Estimation of the solar-induced natural variability of the tritium concentration of precipitation in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere".ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT 233(2020).