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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117868
	Developing a statistical model to explain the observed decline of atmospheric mercury
	Wu Q.; Tang Y.; Wang S.; Li L.; Deng K.; Tang G.; Liu K.; Ding D.; Zhang H.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1352-2310
卷号	243
英文摘要	Mercury is a ubiquitous environmental toxicant and a cause for global concern due to its persistence and bioaccumulation in the environment. Evaluating the effectiveness of mercury emission control has become a significant issue after the entry into force of the Minamata Convention on Mercury in 2017. Atmospheric mercury concentration is an important indicator for anthropogenic emission control. Although Eulerian models are generally applied to evaluate emission reduction and policy effectiveness, the uncertainty of mercury reaction mechanisms and the insufficient grid accuracy of simulations limit the applications of this method at particular sites. In this study, we applied a statistical approach (the Generalized Additive Model, GAM) to explain the decline of atmospheric mercury concentration in Beijing, China, which followed a trend (Sen's slope) of −0.37 ng m−3 yr−1 (−8.0% yr−1). The statistical model represented 56.5% of the variance in mercury concentration and the adjusted R2 reached 0.547. Reduction of anthropogenic mercury emission, variation in meteorological condition, and change in global background level explained 51.5%, 47.1%, and 1.4% of the decrease of air mercury concentration, respectively. We validated the results using Hg emission inventories, seasonal Hg/CO value, and meteorological data. Considering the limitations of Eulerian models and the simplicity of statistical models, we suggest the application of GAM as an assessment method for long-term variation of atmospheric mercury. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	Atmospheric mercury concentration Generalized additive model Mercury emissions Meteorological condition Sen's slope
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Biochemistry; Emission control; Meteorology; Anthropogenic emissions; Anthropogenic mercury emissions; Environmental toxicants; Generalized additive model; Mercury concentrations; Mercury emission control; Meteorological condition; Statistical approach; Mercury (metal); mercury; atmospheric pollution; background level; bioaccumulation; concentration (composition); emission control; mercury (element); numerical model; statistical analysis; Article; atmosphere; concentration ratio; independent variable; meteorology; priority journal; statistical analysis; statistical model; trend study; Beijing [China]; China
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/248904
作者单位	School of Environment, State Key Joint Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; State Environmental Protection Key Laboratory of Sources and Control of Air Pollution Complex, Beijing, 100084, China; China National Environmental Monitoring Center, No. 8 Anwai Dayangfang, Beijing, 100012, China; Center for Statistical Science, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, China; State Key Laboratory of Environmental Geochemistry, Institute of Geochemistry, Chinese Academy of Science, 99 Lincheng West Road, Guiyang, 550081, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wu Q.,Tang Y.,Wang S.,et al. Developing a statistical model to explain the observed decline of atmospheric mercury[J],2020,243.
APA	Wu Q..,Tang Y..,Wang S..,Li L..,Deng K..,...&Zhang H..(2020).Developing a statistical model to explain the observed decline of atmospheric mercury.ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT,243.
MLA	Wu Q.,et al."Developing a statistical model to explain the observed decline of atmospheric mercury".ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT 243(2020).