气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A novel hybrid spatiotemporal land use regression model system at the megacity scale

CCPortal

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117971
	A novel hybrid spatiotemporal land use regression model system at the megacity scale
	Wang J.; Xu H.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1352-2310
卷号	244
英文摘要	Air pollution has become a global problem and can cause serious damage to human health. Epidemiological studies on the long-term exposure to air pollution can reveal the extent of this damage. Spatiotemporal land use regression (LUR) models can be used to obtain long-term pollutant concentration surfaces with high spatiotemporal resolution. However, previously established spatiotemporal LUR models generally exhibit poor spatial prediction performances in some time panels compared with their average performances. These inaccurate pollutant concentrations lead to misclassification errors in epidemiological studies. To solve this problem, a hybrid spatiotemporal LUR model system is proposed in this study, which consists of support vector regression (SVR), multiple linear regression (MLR), and a special spatiotemporal (ST) algorithm. Three SVR layers were used for the main prediction, whereas MLR and ST were used to supplement time panels with poor spatial prediction performances. In addition, temporal segmentation modeling was adopted for SVR to further improve the performance. We used the megacity Tianjin in China for our case study and six target air pollutants (CO, NO2, O3, PM10, PM2.5, and SO2). The superiority of our model system was tested by cross-validation. The results show that the number of days on which the R2cv of the model is higher than 0.6 for CO, NO2, O3, PM10, PM2.5, and SO2 is 363, 364, 362, 357, 360, and 362, respectively, whereas the mean of the daily R2cv on these days is 0.911, 0.903, 0.891, 0.879, 0.866, and 0.883, respectively. Based on the use of our model system, a relatively high spatial prediction performance was achieved for almost all time panels. This model system can be applied to cohort health studies to obtain the pollutant concentration surfaces of any time panel with high reliability and reduce the exposure measurement errors of misclassifications. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	Air pollution Epidemiology Land use regression model Long-term exposure Spatiotemporal Support vector regression
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Air pollution; Forecasting; Land use; Linear regression; Nitrogen oxides; Sulfur dioxide; Epidemiological studies; Land-use regression models; Misclassification error; Multiple linear regressions; Pollutant concentration; Spatio-temporal resolution; Support vector regression (SVR); Temporal segmentations; Support vector regression; carbon monoxide; nitrogen dioxide; ozone; sulfur dioxide; algorithm; atmospheric pollution; epidemiology; land use change; megacity; model validation; numerical model; performance assessment; pollution effect; pollution exposure; regression analysis; spatiotemporal analysis; air pollutant; Article; China; city; cross validation; environmental exposure; explanatory variable; intermethod comparison; long term exposure; measurement error; megacity; multiple linear regression analysis; particulate matter 10; particulate matter 2.5; prediction; priority journal; regression analysis; reliability; response variable; spatial analysis; spatiotemporal analysis; spatiotemporal land use regression model; support vector machine; temporal analysis; China; Tianjin
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/248811
作者单位	College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nankai University, No. 38, Tongyan Road, Jinnan District, Tianjin 300350, China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wang J.,Xu H.. A novel hybrid spatiotemporal land use regression model system at the megacity scale[J],2021,244.
APA	Wang J.,&Xu H..(2021).A novel hybrid spatiotemporal land use regression model system at the megacity scale.ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT,244.
MLA	Wang J.,et al."A novel hybrid spatiotemporal land use regression model system at the megacity scale".ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT 244(2021).