气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Comparison of SCIPUFF predictions to SO2 measurements from instruments on the MetOp-A, MetOp-B, Aura and Suomi satellites from the 2016 fire at Al-Mishraq

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.118007
	Comparison of SCIPUFF predictions to SO2 measurements from instruments on the MetOp-A, MetOp-B, Aura and Suomi satellites from the 2016 fire at Al-Mishraq
	Bradley S.; Franco M.; Hanna S.; Howard J.; Meris R.; Mazzola T.; Pate B.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1352-2310
卷号	245
英文摘要	On October 20th, 2016, Daesh (Islamic State) set fire to the sulfur production and storage site at Al-Mishraq, Iraq. The fire burned continuously for seven days resulting in the release of a buoyant dynamic sulfur dioxide (SO2) toxic plume extending geographically for over 300 km. This Al-Mishraq event provides an opportunity for scientists to address probabilistic atmospheric transport and dispersion (PATD) hazard model performance across multiple downwind scales over a large area. In using any PATD model, a fair evaluation of the model depends on the quality of the source term – especially for a very dynamic source term such as a burning sulfur stockpile. An innovative approach to derive such a source for Al-Mishraq was explored by the Swedish Defence Research Agency (in Swedish Totalförsvarets forskningsinstitut, or FOI). The experts from FOI characterized the SO2 source term based on satellite observations, which reflect vertically-integrated concentrations and are expressed in Dobson units (DU). The work throughout this paper is a novel approach and leverages the FOI analysis to evaluate a PATD, the Second Order Closure Integrated Puff (SCIPUFF) transport and dispersion code as adapted within the Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability (HPAC). SCIPUFF predictions are compared to the satellite-based vertically-integrated SO2 measurements from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) instruments. Satellite measurements were available at 07Z and 11Z daily from 21 to 26 Oct 2016. A 1-DU background was assumed. SCIPUFF over predicts (factor of 2) column density (DU) peaks in the near field (40, 80, and 120 km) and under predicts in the far field (200, 280 and 320 km); best agreement is at the 160 km arc. Plume direction errors of 25–80° are found when comparing the azimuths of peak observed and predicted column densities. Performance metrics traditionally used for model evaluation included fractional bias (FB), normalized mean-square error (NMSE), and figure of merit in space (FMS). The FB at 07Z was −0.2 to +0.09 across the eight arcs, 40–320 km downwind. Upon analyses, SCIPUFF showed approximate equal over and under prediction for the 07Z; and the FB at 11Z under predicted seven of eight arcs, with values that ranged from −0.07 to +0.36. The NMSE was 3.11–5.06 with no identifiable trends on arc distance. The FMS, averaged over each arc, by day, was between 0.31 and 0.56. Higher values were found in the early and later stages of the fire 21–22 and 25–26 October. Lower averaged FMS values were calculated for 23–24 October which corresponds to a period where the fire burned hotter and SO2 mass was injected to higher altitudes of 1–4 km. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	Al-Mishraq Column density Evaluation Fire HPAC Satellite SCIPUFF SO2 Sulfur Sulfur dioxide Transport and dispersion Uncertainties Validation
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Aluminum alloys; Buoyancy; Fires; Forecasting; Hazards; Mean square error; Quality control; Radiometers; Satellites; Wind effects; Atmospheric transport and dispersions; Innovative approaches; Moderate resolution; Normalized mean square error; Satellite measurements; Satellite observations; Second-order closure integrated puffs; Transport and dispersions; Sulfur dioxide; sulfur dioxide; atmospheric plume; atmospheric transport; Aura (satellite); burning; dispersion; fire; hazard assessment; MetOp; satellite altimetry; sulfur; sulfur dioxide; Suomi NPP; air quality; Article; atmospheric transport; combustion; comparative study; concentration process; controlled study; dispersion; figure of merit in space; fire; fractional bias; health hazard; mathematical model; mathematical parameters; maximum concentration; measurement accuracy; measurement error; normalized mean square error; plume; priority journal; probabilistic atmospheric transport and dispersion; radiometry; remote sensing; satellite imagery; second order closure integrated puff transport; Iraq; Neptunia
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/248754
作者单位	SAIC, Lorton, VA, United States; Defense Sciences Inc., San Antonio, TX, United States; Hanna Consultants, Kennebunkport, ME, United States; Defence Science & Technology Laboratory, Porton Down, United Kingdom; Defense Threat Reduction Agency, Technical Reachback, Ft. Belvoir, VA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bradley S.,Franco M.,Hanna S.,et al. Comparison of SCIPUFF predictions to SO2 measurements from instruments on the MetOp-A, MetOp-B, Aura and Suomi satellites from the 2016 fire at Al-Mishraq[J],2021,245.
APA	Bradley S..,Franco M..,Hanna S..,Howard J..,Meris R..,...&Pate B..(2021).Comparison of SCIPUFF predictions to SO2 measurements from instruments on the MetOp-A, MetOp-B, Aura and Suomi satellites from the 2016 fire at Al-Mishraq.ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT,245.
MLA	Bradley S.,et al."Comparison of SCIPUFF predictions to SO2 measurements from instruments on the MetOp-A, MetOp-B, Aura and Suomi satellites from the 2016 fire at Al-Mishraq".ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT 245(2021).