气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Air quality impacts of new public transport provision: A causal analysis of the Jubilee Line Extension in London

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.118025
	Air quality impacts of new public transport provision: A causal analysis of the Jubilee Line Extension in London
	Ma L.; Graham D.J.; Stettler M.E.J.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1352-2310
卷号	245
英文摘要	Public transport is commonly associated with benefits such as reducing road traffic congestion and improving air quality. This paper focuses on evaluating the causal impact of a new public transport provision in London, the Jubilee Line Extension (JLE) in 1999, on air quality. Using meteorological normalisation and a regression discontinuity design with time as the forcing variable, we show that the JLE led to only small changes in air pollution at some specific locations; detectable changes in NOx, NO2, and O3 concentrations were found at 63%, 43% and 29% of air pollution monitoring sites, respectively. For those sites where a change in pollution was detected, the responses ranged from −2% to +1% for NO2 and -1% to 0% for O3. We calculate that the long-run effects are greater, ranging from −11% to +3% for NO2 and from −2% to +2% for O3 at sites that showed a response to the JLE. Aggregating across all sites in London for a city-wide effect, both short and long-run effects were less than 1% or insignificant. We find statistically significant increases in NO2 and O3 concentrations at some background sites, but the magnitude of effect is within +1% in the short-run and +3% in the long-run. Our analysis shows that the effect of the JLE on air pollution in some areas was greater than others, however across London the effect was small and this indicates that public transport provision on its own is not an effective strategy to improve air quality. © 2020 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	Air quality Causal analysis Change point detection Gradient boosting decision trees Public transport Regression discontinuity design
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Air quality; Atmospheric movements; Nitrogen oxides; Pollution detection; Traffic congestion; Air pollution monitoring; Air quality impacts; Causal analysis; Line extension; Normalisation; Public transport; Specific location; Quality control; nitrogen dioxide; atmospheric pollution; climate forcing; concentration (composition); design; discontinuity; nitrate; ozone; pollution monitoring; public transport; regression analysis; road traffic; traffic congestion; air pollution; air quality; Article; concentration (parameter); England; meteorological phenomena; pollution monitoring; priority journal; traffic and transport; London
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/248738
作者单位	Centre for Transport Studies, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, London, SW7 2AZ, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ma L.,Graham D.J.,Stettler M.E.J.. Air quality impacts of new public transport provision: A causal analysis of the Jubilee Line Extension in London[J],2021,245.
APA	Ma L.,Graham D.J.,&Stettler M.E.J..(2021).Air quality impacts of new public transport provision: A causal analysis of the Jubilee Line Extension in London.ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT,245.
MLA	Ma L.,et al."Air quality impacts of new public transport provision: A causal analysis of the Jubilee Line Extension in London".ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT 245(2021).