气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Estimating short-term mortality benefits associated with a reduction in tropospheric ozone

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DOI	10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118342
	Estimating short-term mortality benefits associated with a reduction in tropospheric ozone
	Farzad K.; Khorsandi B.; Khorsandi M.; Bouamra O.; Maknoon R.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1352-2310
卷号	252
英文摘要	Objective: Ground-level ozone (O3) is an air contaminant and can be harmful to the human health and environment. The objective of this study is to analyze the statistical trend of O3 and the association between the daily O3 exposure and mortality in Tehran, and to estimate the short-term health benefits of reducing the concentration of O3 in the ambient air of Tehran. Methods: The statistical parameters such as the mean, coefficient of variation, skewness, and kurtosis of O3 concentration for warm and cold seasons were calculated. The association and temporal relationship between the daily O3 concentration and different causes of mortality were analyzed using the generalized additive model (GAM). We utilized the BenMAP software to estimate the (short-term) avoidable mortality associated with reducing O3 concentration to the US EPA's standard level (70 ppb) for a full year and the warm seasons only. Results: The statistical analysis of O3 revealed an increase in the 1-h maximum and 8-h maximum concentrations in recent years. The association between O3 exposure and mortality was significant for the warm seasons when the concentration was highest. For every 10 ppb increase in the O3 concentration, there was 1.2% increase in mortality. Furthermore, the association was more significant for cardiovascular than respiratory attributed mortality. The analysis also showed a 3-day lag from the time of O3 exposure and mortality for the total population. The aforementioned scenario (for a full year) run in BenMAP resulted in 508 (90% CI: 69–937) annual all-cause avoidable deaths in Tehran. Conclusion: The maximum O3 concentration in Tehran has been increasing in the recent years, raising the alarm for potential adverse health impacts. In this study we found a significant association between short-term exposure to O3 and mortality during the warm seasons and a substantial predicted health benefit in reduction of this pollutant. Given the increasing ambient O3 concentration, it is necessary to further explore the aetiology/ies behind this increase and to consider how reductions in O3 precursors can reduce the public health burden in Tehran. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd
关键词	Air pollution BenMAP Generalized additive model Health impact assessment O3 Tehran
语种	英语
scopus关键词	Additives; Higher order statistics; Ozone; Public health; % reductions; BenMAP; Generalized additive model; Health benefits; Health impact assessment; O3; Short term; Tehran; Tropospheric ozone; Warm seasons; Air pollution; ozone; ambient air; correlation; mortality; ozone; public health; seasonality; software; standard (reference); statistical analysis; troposphere; adult; aged; air pollution; ambient air; Article; cause of death; cold; controlled study; environmental exposure; health impact assessment; human; Iran; maximum concentration; mortality; mortality rate; pollutant; priority journal; risk factor; season; temperature; Tehran [Iran]; United States
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/248510
作者单位	Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic), 350 Hafez Street, Tehran, 15916-34311, Iran; Division of Cardiothoracic Surgery, University of Washington Medical CenterWA, United States; Faculty of Biology, Medicine and Health, Epidemiology Centre, University of Manchester, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Farzad K.,Khorsandi B.,Khorsandi M.,et al. Estimating short-term mortality benefits associated with a reduction in tropospheric ozone[J],2021,252.
APA	Farzad K.,Khorsandi B.,Khorsandi M.,Bouamra O.,&Maknoon R..(2021).Estimating short-term mortality benefits associated with a reduction in tropospheric ozone.ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT,252.
MLA	Farzad K.,et al."Estimating short-term mortality benefits associated with a reduction in tropospheric ozone".ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT 252(2021).