气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Comparing the impact of environmental conditions and microphysics on the forecast uncertainty of deep convective clouds and hail

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/acp-20-2201-2020
	Comparing the impact of environmental conditions and microphysics on the forecast uncertainty of deep convective clouds and hail
	Wellmann C.; I Barrett A.; S Johnson J.; Kunz M.; Vogel B.; S Carslaw K.; Hoose C.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1680-7316
起始页码	2201
结束页码	2219
卷号	20 期号:4
英文摘要	Severe hailstorms have the potential to damage buildings and crops. However, important processes for the prediction of hailstorms are insufficiently represented in operational weather forecast models. Therefore, our goal is to identify model input parameters describing environmental conditions and cloud microphysics, such as the vertical wind shear and strength of ice multiplication, which lead to large uncertainties in the prediction of deep convective clouds and precipitation. We conduct a comprehensive sensitivity analysis simulating deep convective clouds in an idealized setup of a cloud-resolving model. We use statistical emulation and variance-based sensitivity analysis to enable a Monte Carlo sampling of the model outputs across the multi-dimensional parameter space. The results show that the model dynamical and microphysical properties are sensitive to both the environmental and microphysical uncertainties in the model. The microphysical parameters lead to larger uncertainties in the output of integrated hydrometeor mass contents and precipitation variables. In particular, the uncertainty in the fall velocities of graupel and hail account for more than 65 % of the variance of all considered precipitation variables and for 30 %-90 % of the variance of the integrated hydrometeor mass contents. In contrast, variations in the environmental parameters - the range of which is limited to represent model uncertainty - mainly affect the vertical profiles of the diabatic heating rates. © 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	cloud microphysics; comparative study; convective cloud; diabatic process; environmental conditions; hail; heating; vertical profile
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/247963
作者单位	Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, Germany; Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wellmann C.,I Barrett A.,S Johnson J.,et al. Comparing the impact of environmental conditions and microphysics on the forecast uncertainty of deep convective clouds and hail[J],2020,20(4).
APA	Wellmann C..,I Barrett A..,S Johnson J..,Kunz M..,Vogel B..,...&Hoose C..(2020).Comparing the impact of environmental conditions and microphysics on the forecast uncertainty of deep convective clouds and hail.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,20(4).
MLA	Wellmann C.,et al."Comparing the impact of environmental conditions and microphysics on the forecast uncertainty of deep convective clouds and hail".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 20.4(2020).