气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying uncertainties of climate signals in chemistry climate models related to the 11-year solar cycle - Part 1: Annual mean response in heating rates, temperature, and ozone

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DOI	10.5194/acp-20-6991-2020
	Quantifying uncertainties of climate signals in chemistry climate models related to the 11-year solar cycle - Part 1: Annual mean response in heating rates, temperature, and ozone
	Kunze M.; Kruschke T.; Langematz U.; Sinnhuber M.; Reddmann T.; Matthes K.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1680-7316
起始页码	6991
结束页码	7019
卷号	20 期号:11
英文摘要	pVariations in the solar spectral irradiance (SSI) with the 11-year sunspot cycle have been shown to have a significant impact on temperatures and the mixing ratios of atmospheric constituents in the stratosphere and mesosphere. Uncertainties in modelling the effects of SSI variations arise from uncertainties in the empirical models reconstructing the prescribed SSI data set as well as from uncertainties in the chemistry-climate model (CCM) formulation. In this study CCM simulations with the ECHAM/MESSy Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) model and the Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1)-Whole Atmosphere Chemistry Climate Model (WACCM) have been performed to quantify the uncertainties of the solar responses in chemistry and dynamics that are due to the usage of five different SSI data sets or the two CCMs. We apply a two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) to separate the influence of the SSI data sets and the CCMs on the variability of the solar response in shortwave heating rates, temperature, and ozone. The solar response is derived from climatological differences of time slice simulations prescribing SSI for the solar maximum in 1989 and near the solar minimum in 1994. The SSI values for the solar maximum of each SSI data set are created by adding the SSI differences between November 1994 and November 1989 to a common SSI reference spectrum for near-solar-minimum conditions based on ATLAS-3 (Atmospheric Laboratory of Applications and Science-3). The ANOVA identifies the SSI data set with the strongest influence on the variability of the solar response in shortwave heating rates in the upper mesosphere and in the upper stratosphere-lower mesosphere. The strongest influence on the variability of the solar response in ozone and temperature is identified in the upper stratosphere-lower mesosphere. However, in the region of the largest ozone mixing ratio, in the stratosphere from 50 to 10 hPa, the SSI data sets do not contribute much to the variability of the solar response when the Spectral And Total Irradiance REconstructions-T (SATIRE-T) SSI data set is omitted. The largest influence of the CCMs on variability of the solar responses can be identified in the upper mesosphere. The solar response in the lower stratosphere also depends on the CCM used, especially in the tropics and northern hemispheric subtropics and mid-latitudes, where the model dynamics modulate the solar responses. Apart from the upper mesosphere, there are also regions where the largest fraction of the variability of the solar response is explained by randomness, especially for the solar response in temperature. © 2020 Copernicus GmbH. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	annual variation; atmospheric chemistry; climate modeling; heating; irradiance; mesosphere; mixing ratio; model test; ozone; quantitative analysis; solar cycle; spectral reflectance; stratosphere; temperature profile; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/247717
作者单位	Institut für Meteorologie, Freie Universität Berlin, Berlin, 12165, Germany; Research Division Ocean Circulation and Climate, GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research, Kiel, 24105, Germany; Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Karlsruhe, 76021, Germany; Christian-Albrechts-Universität zu Kiel, Kiel, 24105, Germany; Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, Rossby Centre, Norrköping, Sweden
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kunze M.,Kruschke T.,Langematz U.,et al. Quantifying uncertainties of climate signals in chemistry climate models related to the 11-year solar cycle - Part 1: Annual mean response in heating rates, temperature, and ozone[J],2020,20(11).
APA	Kunze M.,Kruschke T.,Langematz U.,Sinnhuber M.,Reddmann T.,&Matthes K..(2020).Quantifying uncertainties of climate signals in chemistry climate models related to the 11-year solar cycle - Part 1: Annual mean response in heating rates, temperature, and ozone.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,20(11).
MLA	Kunze M.,et al."Quantifying uncertainties of climate signals in chemistry climate models related to the 11-year solar cycle - Part 1: Annual mean response in heating rates, temperature, and ozone".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 20.11(2020).