气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers

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DOI	10.5194/acp-20-9641-2020
	Climate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers
	J. Allen R.; Turnock S.; Nabat P.; Neubauer D.; Lohmann U.; Olivié D.; Oshima N.; Michou M.; Wu T.; Zhang J.; Takemura T.; Schulz M.; Tsigaridis K.; E. Bauer S.; Emmons L.; Horowitz L.; Naik V.; Van Noije T.; Bergman T.; Lamarque J.-F.; Zanis P.; Tegen I.; M. Westervelt D.; Le Sager P.; Good P.; Shim S.; O'Connor F.; Akritidis D.; Georgoulias A.K.; Deushi M.; T. Sentman L.; G. John J.; Fujimori S.; J. Collins W.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1680-7316
起始页码	9641
结束页码	9663
卷号	20 期号:16
英文摘要	It is important to understand how future environmental policies will impact both climate change and air pollution. Although targeting near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), defined here as aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and precursor gases, should improve air quality, NTCF reductions will also impact climate. Prior assessments of the impact of NTCF mitigation on air quality and climate have been limited. This is related to the idealized nature of some prior studies, simplified treatment of aerosols and chemically reactive gases, as well as a lack of a sufficiently large number of models to quantify model diversity and robust responses. Here, we quantify the 2015-2055 climate and air quality effects of non-methane NTCFs using nine state-of-the-art chemistry-climate model simulations conducted for the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). Simulations are driven by two future scenarios featuring similar increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) but with weak (SSP3-7.0) versus strong (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) levels of air quality control measures. As SSP3-7.0 lacks climate policy and has the highest levels of NTCFs, our results (e.g., surface warming) represent an upper bound. Unsurprisingly, we find significant improvements in air quality under NTCF mitigation (strong versus weak air quality controls). Surface fine particulate matter (PM2:5) and ozone (O3) decrease by 2:20:32 ugm3 and 4:60:88 ppb, respectively (changes quoted here are for the entire 2015-2055 time period; uncertainty represents the 95% confidence interval), over global land surfaces, with larger reductions in some regions including south and southeast Asia. Non-methane NTCF mitigation, however, leads to additional climate change due to the removal of aerosol which causes a net warming effect, including global mean surface temperature and precipitation increases of 0:250:12K and 0:030:012mmd1, respectively. Similarly, increases in extreme weather indices, including the hottest and wettest days, also occur. Regionally, the largest warming and wetting occurs over Asia, including central and north Asia (0:660:20K and 0:030:02mmd1), south Asia (0:470:16K and 0:170:09mmd1), and east Asia (0:460:20K and 0:150:06mmd1). Relatively large warming and wetting of the Arctic also occur at 0:590:36K and 0:040:02mmd1, respectively. Similar surface warming occurs in model simulations with aerosol-only mitigation, implying weak cooling due to ozone reductions. Our findings suggest that future policies that aggressively target non-methane NTCF reductions will improve air quality but will lead to additional surface warming, particularly in Asia and the Arctic. Policies that address other NTCFs including methane, as well as carbon dioxide emissions, must also be adopted to meet climate mitigation goals. © Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	aerosol; air quality; atmospheric pollution; climate change; climate forcing; future prospect; methane; Asia
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/247585
作者单位	Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, University of California Riverside, Riverside, CA, United States; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques (CNRM), Universite de Toulouse, Météo-France, Cnrs, Toulouse, France; Institute of Atmospheric and Climate Science, Eth Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Norwegian Meteorological Institute, Oslo, Norway; Meteorological Research Institute, Japan Meteorological Agency, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan; Climate System Modeling Division, Beijing Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China; Climate Change Science Section, Research Institute for Applied Mechanics, Kyushu University, Fukuoka, Japan; Center for Climate Systems Research, Columbia University, Nasa Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, United States; Atmospheric Chemistry Observations and Modelling Lab, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; DOC/NOAA/OAR/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, B...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	J. Allen R.,Turnock S.,Nabat P.,et al. Climate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers[J],2020,20(16).
APA	J. Allen R..,Turnock S..,Nabat P..,Neubauer D..,Lohmann U..,...&J. Collins W..(2020).Climate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,20(16).
MLA	J. Allen R.,et al."Climate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 20.16(2020).