气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing impacts the simulated global monsoon in the 20th century

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DOI	10.5194/acp-20-14903-2020
	Uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing impacts the simulated global monsoon in the 20th century
	Shonk J.K.P.; Turner A.G.; Chevuturi A.; Wilcox L.J.; Dittus A.J.; Hawkins E.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1680-7316
起始页码	14903
结束页码	14915
卷号	20 期号:23
英文摘要	Anthropogenic aerosols are dominant drivers of historical monsoon rainfall change. However, large uncertainties in the radiative forcing associated with anthropogenic aerosol emissions, as well as the dynamical response to this forcing, lead to uncertainty in the simulated monsoon response. We use historical simulations from the "SMURPHS" project, run using HadGEM3-GC3.1, in which the timevarying aerosol emissions are scaled by factors from 0.2 to 1.5 to explore the monsoon sensitivity to historical aerosol forcing uncertainty (present-day versus preindustrial aerosol forcing in the range 0:38 to 1:50Wm2). The hemispheric asymmetry in emissions generates a strong relationship between scaling factor and both hemispheric temperature contrast and meridional location of tropical rainfall. Averaged over the period 1950 2014, increasing the scaling factor from 0.2 to 1.5 reduces the hemispheric temperature contrast by 0.9 C, reduces the tropical summertime land sea temperature contrast by 0.3 C and shifts tropical rainfall southwards by 0.28 of latitude. The result is a reduction in global monsoon area by 3% and a reduction in global monsoon intensity by 2 %. Despite the complexity of the monsoon system, the monsoon properties presented above vary monotonically and roughly linearly across scalings. A switch in the dominant influence on the 1950 1980 monsoon rainfall trend between greenhouse gases and aerosol is identified as the scalings increase. Regionally, aerosol scaling has a pronounced effect on Northern Hemisphere monsoon rainfall, with the strongest influence on monsoon area and intensity located in the Asian sector, where local emissions are greatest. © 2020 BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	aerosol; air temperature; greenhouse gas; monsoon; Northern Hemisphere; radiative forcing; twentieth century; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/247311
作者单位	National Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; MetOffice@Reading, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Shonk J.K.P.,Turner A.G.,Chevuturi A.,et al. Uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing impacts the simulated global monsoon in the 20th century[J],2020,20(23).
APA	Shonk J.K.P.,Turner A.G.,Chevuturi A.,Wilcox L.J.,Dittus A.J.,&Hawkins E..(2020).Uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing impacts the simulated global monsoon in the 20th century.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,20(23).
MLA	Shonk J.K.P.,et al."Uncertainty in aerosol radiative forcing impacts the simulated global monsoon in the 20th century".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 20.23(2020).