气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Dependence of predictability of precipitation in the northwestern Mediterranean coastal region on the strength of synoptic control

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DOI	10.5194/acp-20-15851-2020
	Dependence of predictability of precipitation in the northwestern Mediterranean coastal region on the strength of synoptic control
	Keil C.; Chabert L.; Nuissier O.; Raynaud L.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	1680-7316
起始页码	15851
结束页码	15865
卷号	20 期号:24
英文摘要	The weather-regime-dependent predictability of precipitation in the convection-permitting kilometric-scale AROME-EPS is examined for the entire HyMeX-SOP1 employing the convective adjustment timescale. This diagnostic quantifies variations in synoptic forcing on precipitation and is associated with different precipitation characteristics, forecast skill and predictability. During strong synoptic control, which dominates the weather on 80 % of the days in the 2-month period, the domain-integrated precipitation predictability assessed with the normalized ensemble standard deviation is above average, the wet bias is smaller and the forecast quality is generally better. In contrast, the pure spatial forecast quality of the most intense precipitation in the afternoon, as quantified with its 95th percentile, is superior during weakly forced synoptic regimes. The study also considers a prominent heavy-precipitation event that occurred during the NAWDEX field campaign in the same region, and the predictability during this event is compared with the events that occurred during HyMeX. It is shown that the unconditional evaluation of precipitation widely parallels the strongly forced weather type evaluation and obscures forecast model characteristics typical for weak control. © 2020 Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	climate prediction; coastal zone; precipitation (climatology); synoptic meteorology; weather forecasting; Mediterranean Region
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/247260
作者单位	Meteorologisches Institut, Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität, Munich, Germany; Cnrm (Météo-France and CNRS), 42 avenue G. Coriolis, Toulouse Cedex, 31057, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Keil C.,Chabert L.,Nuissier O.,et al. Dependence of predictability of precipitation in the northwestern Mediterranean coastal region on the strength of synoptic control[J],2020,20(24).
APA	Keil C.,Chabert L.,Nuissier O.,&Raynaud L..(2020).Dependence of predictability of precipitation in the northwestern Mediterranean coastal region on the strength of synoptic control.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,20(24).
MLA	Keil C.,et al."Dependence of predictability of precipitation in the northwestern Mediterranean coastal region on the strength of synoptic control".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 20.24(2020).