气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Recommendations on benchmarks for numerical air quality model applications in China

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/acp-21-2725-2021
	Recommendations on benchmarks for numerical air quality model applications in China - Part 1: PM2.5 and chemical species
	Huang L.; Zhu Y.; Zhai H.; Xue S.; Zhu T.; Shao Y.; Liu Z.; Emery C.; Yarwood G.; Wang Y.; Fu J.; Zhang K.; Li L.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1680-7316
起始页码	2725
结束页码	2743
卷号	21 期号:4
英文摘要	Numerical air quality models (AQMs) have been applied more frequently over the past decade to address diverse scientific and regulatory issues associated with deteriorated air quality in China. Thorough evaluation of a model's ability to replicate monitored conditions (i.e., a model performance evaluation or MPE) helps to illuminate the robustness and reliability of the baseline modeling results and subsequent analyses. However, with numerous input data requirements, diverse model configurations, and the scientific evolution of the models themselves, no two AQM applications are the same and their performance results should be expected to differ. MPE procedures have been developed for Europe and North America, but there is currently no uniform set of MPE procedures and associated benchmarks for China. Here we present an extensive review of model performance for fine particulate matter (PM2:5) AQM applications to China and, from this context, propose a set of statistical benchmarks that can be used to objectively evaluate model performance for PM2:5 AQMapplications in China.We compiled MPE results from 307 peer-reviewed articles published between 2006 and 2019, which applied five of the most frequently used AQMs in China. We analyze influences on the range of reported statistics from different model configurations, including modeling regions and seasons, spatial resolution of modeling grids, temporal resolution of the MPE, etc. Analysis using a random forest method shows that the choices of emission inventory, grid resolution, and aerosoland gas-phase chemistry are the top three factors affecting modelperformance for PM2:5. We propose benchmarks for six frequently used evaluation metrics for AQM applications in China, including two tiers - goals and criteria - where goals represent the best model performance that a model is currently expected to achieve and criteria represent the model performance that the majority of studies can meet. Our results formed a benchmark framework for the modeling performance of PM2:5 and its chemical species in China. For instance, in order to meet the goal and criteria, the normalized mean bias (NMB) for total PM2:5 should be within 10% and 20 %, while the normalized mean error (NME) should be within 35% and 45 %, respectively. The goal and criteria values of correlation coefficients for evaluating hourly and daily PM2:5 are 0.70 and 0.60, respectively; corresponding values are higher when the index of agreement (IOA) is used (0.80 for goal and 0.70 for criteria). Results from this study will support the ever-growing modeling community in China by providing a more objective assessment and context for how well their results compare with previous studies and to better demonstrate the credibility and robustness of their AQM applications prior to subsequent regulatory assessments. © Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	air quality; benchmarking; concentration (composition); emission control; numerical model; particulate matter; seasonal variation; spatiotemporal analysis; China
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/247117
作者单位	School of Environmental and Chemical Engineering, Shanghai University, Shanghai, 200444, China; Ramboll, Novato, CA 94945, United States; Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN 37996, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Huang L.,Zhu Y.,Zhai H.,et al. Recommendations on benchmarks for numerical air quality model applications in China - Part 1: PM2.5 and chemical species[J],2021,21(4).
APA	Huang L..,Zhu Y..,Zhai H..,Xue S..,Zhu T..,...&Li L..(2021).Recommendations on benchmarks for numerical air quality model applications in China - Part 1: PM2.5 and chemical species.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,21(4).
MLA	Huang L.,et al."Recommendations on benchmarks for numerical air quality model applications in China - Part 1: PM2.5 and chemical species".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 21.4(2021).