气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Identifying forecast uncertainties for biogenic gases in the Po Valley related to model configuration in EURAD-IM during PEGASOS 2012

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DOI	10.5194/acp-21-4039-2021
	Identifying forecast uncertainties for biogenic gases in the Po Valley related to model configuration in EURAD-IM during PEGASOS 2012
	Vogel A.; Elbern H.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1680-7316
起始页码	4039
结束页码	4057
卷号	21 期号:5
英文摘要	Forecasts of biogenic trace gases in the planetary boundary layer (PBL) are highly affected by simulated emission and transport processes. The Po region during the PEGASOS campaign in summer 2012 provides challenging, yet common, conditions for simulating biogenic gases in the PBL. This study identifies and quantifies principal sources of forecast uncertainties induced by various model configurations under these conditions. Specifically, the effects of model configuration on different processes affecting atmospheric distributions of biogenic trace gas distributions are analyzed based on a priori available information. The investigation is based on the EURopean Air pollution Dispersion-Inverse Model (EURAD-IM) chemistry transport model employing the Model for Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature version 2.1 (MEGAN 2.1) biogenic emission module and Regional Atmospheric Chemistry Mechanism-Mainz Isoprene Mechanism (RACM-MIM) as the gas phase chemistry mechanism. Two major sources of forecast uncertainties are identified in this study. Firstly, biogenic emissions appear to be exceptionally sensitive to land surface properties inducing total variations in local concentrations of up to 1 order of magnitude. Moreover, these sensitivities are found to be highly similar for different gases and almost constant during the campaign, varying only diurnally. Secondly, the model configuration also highly influences regional flow patterns with significant effects on pollutant transport and mixing. This effect was corroborated by diverging source regions of a representative air mass and thus applies also to non-biogenic gases. As a result, large sensitivities to model configuration are found for surface concentrations of isoprene, as well as OH, affecting reactive atmospheric chemistry. Especially in areas with small-scale emission patterns, changes in the model configuration are able to induce significantly different local concentrations. The amount and complexity of sensitivities found in this study demonstrate the need to consider forecast uncertainties in chemical transport models with a special focus on biogenic emissions and pollutant transport. © Author(s) 2021. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric chemistry; atmospheric pollution; biogenic emission; boundary layer; forecasting method; mixing; modeling; pollutant transport; trace gas; Italy; Po Valley
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/247055
作者单位	Institute for Energy and Climate Research-Troposphere (IEK-8), Forschungszentrum Jülich, Jülich, Germany; Rhenish Institute for Environmental Research, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany; Institute for Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Cologne, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Vogel A.,Elbern H.. Identifying forecast uncertainties for biogenic gases in the Po Valley related to model configuration in EURAD-IM during PEGASOS 2012[J],2021,21(5).
APA	Vogel A.,&Elbern H..(2021).Identifying forecast uncertainties for biogenic gases in the Po Valley related to model configuration in EURAD-IM during PEGASOS 2012.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,21(5).
MLA	Vogel A.,et al."Identifying forecast uncertainties for biogenic gases in the Po Valley related to model configuration in EURAD-IM during PEGASOS 2012".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 21.5(2021).