气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Sensitivities of the Madden-Julian oscillation forecasts to configurations of physics in the ECMWF global model

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DOI	10.5194/acp-21-4759-2021
	Sensitivities of the Madden-Julian oscillation forecasts to configurations of physics in the ECMWF global model
	Yano J.I.; Wedi N.P.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1680-7316
起始页码	4759
结束页码	4778
卷号	21 期号:6
英文摘要	The sensitivities of the Madden Julian oscillation (MJO) forecasts to various different configurations of the parameterized physics are examined with the global model of ECMWF s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). The motivation for the study was to simulate the MJO as a nonlinear free wave under active interactions with higher-latitude Rossby waves. To emulate free dynamics in the IFS, various momentum-dissipation terms ("friction") as well as diabatic heating were selectively turned off over the tropics for the range of the latitudes from 20 S to 20 N. The reduction of friction sometimes improves the MJO forecasts, although without any systematic tendency. Contrary to the original motivation, emulating free dynamics with an operational forecast model turned out to be rather difficult, because forecast performance sensitively depends on the specific type of friction turned off. The result suggests the need for theoretical investigations that much more closely follow the actual formulations of model physics: A naive approach with a dichotomy of with or without friction simply fails to elucidate the rich behaviour of complex operational models. The paper further exposes the importance of physical processes other than convection for simulating the MJO in global forecast models. © 2021 BMJ Publishing Group. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric modeling; diabatic process; Madden-Julian oscillation; Rossby wave; sensitivity analysis; weather forecasting
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/247020
作者单位	Cnrm, Umr 3589 (CNRS), Météo-France, Toulouse CEDEX, 31057, France; European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yano J.I.,Wedi N.P.. Sensitivities of the Madden-Julian oscillation forecasts to configurations of physics in the ECMWF global model[J],2021,21(6).
APA	Yano J.I.,&Wedi N.P..(2021).Sensitivities of the Madden-Julian oscillation forecasts to configurations of physics in the ECMWF global model.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,21(6).
MLA	Yano J.I.,et al."Sensitivities of the Madden-Julian oscillation forecasts to configurations of physics in the ECMWF global model".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 21.6(2021).