气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Analysis of recent lower-stratospheric ozone trends in chemistry climate models

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DOI	10.5194/acp-21-6811-2021
	Analysis of recent lower-stratospheric ozone trends in chemistry climate models
	Dietmuller S.; Garny H.; Eichinger R.; T. Ball W.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1680-7316
起始页码	6811
结束页码	6837
卷号	21 期号:9
英文摘要	Recent observations show a significant decrease in lower-stratospheric (LS) ozone concentrations in tropical and mid-latitude regions since 1998. By analysing 31 chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations performed for the Chemistry Climate Model Initiative (CCMI; Morgenstern et al., 2017), we find a large spread in the 1998 2018 trend patterns between different CCMs and between different realizations performed with the same CCM. The latter in particular indicates that natural variability strongly influences LS ozone trends. However none of the model simulations reproduce the observed ozone trend structure of coherent negative trends in the LS. In contrast to the observations, most models show an LS trend pattern with negative trends in the tropics (20 S 20 N) and positive trends in the northern mid-latitudes (30 50 N) or vice versa. To investigate the influence of natural variability on recent LS ozone trends, we analyse the sensitivity of observational trends and the models trend probability distributions for varying periods with start dates from 1995 to 2001 and end dates from 2013 to 2019. Generally, modelled and observed LS trends remain robust for these different periods; however observational data show a change towards weaker mid-latitude trends for certain periods, likely forced by natural variability. Moreover we show that in the tropics the observed trends agree well with the models trend distribution, whereas in the mid-latitudes the observational trend is typically an extreme value of the models distribution. We further investigate the LS ozone trends for extended periods reaching into the future and find that all models develop a positive ozone trend at mid-latitudes, and the trends converge to constant values by the period that spans 1998 2060. Inter-model correlations between ozone trends and transport-circulation trends confirm the dominant role of greenhouse gas (GHG)-driven tropical upwelling enhancement on the tropical LS ozone decrease. Mid-latitude ozone, on the other hand, appears to be influenced by multiple competing factors: an enhancement in the shallow branch decreases ozone, while an enhancement in the deep branch increases ozone, and, furthermore, mixing plays a role here too. Sensitivity simulations with fixed forcing of GHGs or ozonedepleting substances (ODSs) reveal that the GHG-driven increase in circulation strength does not lead to a net trend in LS mid-latitude column ozone. Rather, the positive ozone trends simulated consistently in the models in this region emerge from the decline in ODSs, i.e. the ozone recovery. Therefore, we hypothesize that next to the influence of natural variability, the disagreement of modelled and observed LS mid-latitude ozone trends could indicate a mismatch in the relative role of the response of ozone to ODS versus GHG forcing in the models. © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	atmospheric chemistry; climate modeling; concentration (composition); numerical model; ozone; sensitivity analysis; trend analysis
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/246917
作者单位	Deutsches Zentrum fur Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut fur Physik der Atmosphare, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany; Ludwig Maximilians Universitat, Faculty of Physics, Institute for Meteorology, Munich, Germany; Charles University, Department of Atmospheric Physics, Faculty of Mathematics and Physics, Prague, Czech Republic; Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland; Physikalisch-Meteorologisches Observatorium Davos World Radiation Centre, Dorfstrasse 33, Davos Dorf, 7260, Switzerland; Department of Geoscience and Remote Sensing, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, TU Delft, Stevinweg 1, Delft, 2628 CN, Netherlands
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dietmuller S.,Garny H.,Eichinger R.,et al. Analysis of recent lower-stratospheric ozone trends in chemistry climate models[J],2021,21(9).
APA	Dietmuller S.,Garny H.,Eichinger R.,&T. Ball W..(2021).Analysis of recent lower-stratospheric ozone trends in chemistry climate models.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,21(9).
MLA	Dietmuller S.,et al."Analysis of recent lower-stratospheric ozone trends in chemistry climate models".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 21.9(2021).