气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Identifying the sources of uncertainty in climate model simulations of solar radiation modification with the G6sulfur and G6solar Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/acp-21-10039-2021
	Identifying the sources of uncertainty in climate model simulations of solar radiation modification with the G6sulfur and G6solar Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations
	Visioni D.; Macmartin D.G.; Kravitz B.; Boucher O.; Jones A.; Lurton T.; Martine M.; Mills M.J.; Nabat P.; Niemeier U.; Séférian R.; Tilmes S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1680-7316
起始页码	10039
结束页码	10063
卷号	21 期号:13
英文摘要	We present here results from the Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations for the experiments G6sulfur and G6solar for six Earth system models participating in the Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) Phase 6. The aim of the experiments is to reduce the warming that results from a high-tier emission scenario (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP5-8.5) to that resulting from a medium-tier emission scenario (SSP2-4.5). These simulations aim to analyze the response of climate models to a reduction in incoming surface radiation as a means to reduce global surface temperatures, and they do so either by simulating a stratospheric sulfate aerosol layer or, in a more idealized way, through a uniform reduction in the solar constant in the model. We find that over the final two decades of this century there are considerable inter-model spreads in the needed injection amounts of sulfate (29±9Tg-SO2/yr between 2081 and 2100), in the latitudinal distribution of the aerosol cloud and in the stratospheric temperature changes resulting from the added aerosol layer. Even in the simpler G6solar experiment, there is a spread in the needed solar dimming to achieve the same global temperature target (1.91±0.44%). The analyzed models already show significant differences in the response to the increasing CO2 concentrations for global mean temperatures and global mean precipitation (2.05K±0.42K and 2.28±0.80%, respectively, for SSP5-8.5 minus SSP2-4.5 averaged over 2081-2100). With aerosol injection, the differences in how the aerosols spread further change some of the underlying uncertainties, such as the global mean precipitation response (-3.79±0.76% for G6sulfur compared to -2.07±0.40% for G6solar against SSP2-4.5 between 2081 and 2100). These differences in the behavior of the aerosols also result in a larger uncertainty in the regional surface temperature response among models in the case of the G6sulfur simulations, suggesting the need to devise various, more specific experiments to single out and resolve particular sources of uncertainty. The spread in the modeled response suggests that a degree of caution is necessary when using these results for assessing specific impacts of geoengineering in various aspects of the Earth system. However, all models agree that compared to a scenario with unmitigated warming, stratospheric aerosol geoengineering has the potential to both globally and locally reduce the increase in surface temperatures. © 2021 Daniele Visioni et al.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	aerosol; climate modeling; CMIP; computer simulation; solar radiation; stratosphere; sulfate; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/246763
作者单位	Sibley School for Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, United States; Department of Earth and Atmospheric Science, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, United States; Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA, United States; Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Sorbonne Université/CNRS, Paris, France; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, EX1 3PB, United Kingdom; CNRM, Université de Toulouse, Météo-France, CNRS, Toulouse, France; Atmospheric Chemistry, Observations, and Modeling Laboratory, National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO, United States; Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Visioni D.,Macmartin D.G.,Kravitz B.,et al. Identifying the sources of uncertainty in climate model simulations of solar radiation modification with the G6sulfur and G6solar Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations[J],2021,21(13).
APA	Visioni D..,Macmartin D.G..,Kravitz B..,Boucher O..,Jones A..,...&Tilmes S..(2021).Identifying the sources of uncertainty in climate model simulations of solar radiation modification with the G6sulfur and G6solar Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,21(13).
MLA	Visioni D.,et al."Identifying the sources of uncertainty in climate model simulations of solar radiation modification with the G6sulfur and G6solar Geoengineering Model Intercomparison Project (GeoMIP) simulations".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 21.13(2021).