气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Sensitivity to the sources of uncertainties in the modeling of atmospheric CO2 concentration within and in the vicinity of Paris

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/acp-21-10707-2021
	Sensitivity to the sources of uncertainties in the modeling of atmospheric CO2 concentration within and in the vicinity of Paris
	Lian J.; Bréon F.-M.; Broquet G.; Lauvaux T.; Zheng B.; Ramonet M.; Xueref-Remy I.; Kotthaus S.; Haeffelin M.; Ciais P.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1680-7316
起始页码	10707
结束页码	10726
卷号	21 期号:13
英文摘要	The top-down atmospheric inversion method that couples atmospheric CO2 observations with an atmospheric transport model has been used extensively to quantify CO2 emissions from cities. However, the potential of the method is limited by several sources of misfits between the measured and modeled CO2 that are of different origins than the targeted CO2 emissions. This study investigates the critical sources of errors that can compromise the estimates of the city-scale emissions and identifies the signal of emissions that has to be filtered when doing inversions. A set of 1-year forward simulations is carried out using the WRF-Chem model at a horizontal resolution of 1km focusing on the Paris area with different anthropogenic emission inventories, physical parameterizations, and CO2 boundary conditions. The simulated CO2 concentrations are compared with in situ observations from six continuous monitoring stations located within Paris and its vicinity. Results highlight large nighttime model-data misfits, especially in winter within the city, which are attributed to large uncertainties in the diurnal profile of anthropogenic emissions as well as to errors in the vertical mixing near the surface in the WRF-Chem model. The nighttime biogenic respiration to the CO2 concentration is a significant source of modeling errors during the growing season outside the city. When winds are from continental Europe and the CO2 concentration of incoming air masses is influenced by remote emissions and large-scale biogenic fluxes, differences in the simulated CO2 induced by the two different boundary conditions (CAMS and CarbonTracker) can be of up to 5ppm. Nevertheless, our results demonstrate the potential of our optimal CO2 atmospheric modeling system to be utilized in atmospheric inversions of CO2 emissions over the Paris metropolitan area. We evaluated the model performances in terms of wind, vertical mixing, and CO2 model-data mismatches, and we developed a filtering algorithm for outliers due to local contamination and unfavorable meteorological conditions. Analysis of model-data misfit indicates that future inversions at the mesoscale should only use afternoon urban CO2 measurements in winter and suburban measurements in summer. Finally, we determined that errors related to CO2 boundary conditions can be overcome by including distant background observations to constrain the boundary inflow or by assimilating CO2 gradients of upwind-downwind stations rather than by assimilating absolute CO2 concentrations. © Copyright:
语种	英语
scopus关键词	anthropogenic source; atmospheric modeling; atmospheric transport; boundary condition; carbon dioxide; concentration (composition); emission inventory; sensitivity analysis; uncertainty analysis; France; Ile de France; Paris; Ville de Paris
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/246731
作者单位	Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, 91191, France; Institut Méditerranéen de Biodiversité et d'Ecologie Marine et Continentale, Aix-Marseille Université, CNRS, IRD, Avignon Université, Aix-en-Provence, France; Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace (IPSL), CNRS, École Polytechnique, Institut Polytechnique de Paris, Palaiseau CEDEX, 91128, France; Origins S.A.S., Suez Group, Tour CB21, 16 Place de l'Iris, La Défense, Paris CEDEX, 92040, France; Institute of Environment and Ecology, Tsinghua Shenzhen International Graduate School, Tsinghua University, Shenzhen, 518055, China; Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement (LSCE), IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, Gif-sur-Yvette CEDEX, 91191, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lian J.,Bréon F.-M.,Broquet G.,et al. Sensitivity to the sources of uncertainties in the modeling of atmospheric CO2 concentration within and in the vicinity of Paris[J],2021,21(13).
APA	Lian J..,Bréon F.-M..,Broquet G..,Lauvaux T..,Zheng B..,...&Ciais P..(2021).Sensitivity to the sources of uncertainties in the modeling of atmospheric CO2 concentration within and in the vicinity of Paris.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,21(13).
MLA	Lian J.,et al."Sensitivity to the sources of uncertainties in the modeling of atmospheric CO2 concentration within and in the vicinity of Paris".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 21.13(2021).