气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): The effect of forced change and unforced variability in heat waves, temperature extremes, and associated population risk in a CO2-warmed world

CCPortal

DOI	10.5194/acp-21-11889-2021
	The effect of forced change and unforced variability in heat waves, temperature extremes, and associated population risk in a CO2-warmed world
	Lee J.; Mast J.C.; Dessler A.E.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1680-7316
起始页码	11889
结束页码	11904
卷号	21 期号:15
英文摘要	This study investigates the impact of global warming on heat and humidity extremes by analyzing 6 h output from 28 members of the Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble driven by forcing from a 1 % yr-1 CO2 increase. We find that unforced variability drives large changes in regional exposure to extremes in different ensemble members, and these variations are mostly associated with El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability. However, while the unforced variability in the climate can alter the occurrence of extremes regionally, variability within the ensemble decreases significantly as one looks at larger regions or at a global population perspective. This means that, for metrics of extreme heat and humidity analyzed here, forced variability in the climate is more important than the unforced variability at global scales. Lastly, we found that most heat wave metrics will increase significantly between 1.5 and 2.0 °C, and that low gross domestic product (GDP) regions show significantly higher risks of facing extreme heat events compared to high GDP regions. Considering the limited economic adaptability of the population to heat extremes, this reinforces the idea that the most severe impacts of climate change may fall mostly on those least capable of adapting. © Author(s) 2021.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	adaptive management; air temperature; climate effect; climate variation; El Nino-Southern Oscillation; ensemble forecasting; extreme event; global warming; heat wave; nature-society relations; relative humidity; risk assessment
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/246669
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lee J.,Mast J.C.,Dessler A.E.. The effect of forced change and unforced variability in heat waves, temperature extremes, and associated population risk in a CO2-warmed world[J],2021,21(15).
APA	Lee J.,Mast J.C.,&Dessler A.E..(2021).The effect of forced change and unforced variability in heat waves, temperature extremes, and associated population risk in a CO2-warmed world.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,21(15).
MLA	Lee J.,et al."The effect of forced change and unforced variability in heat waves, temperature extremes, and associated population risk in a CO2-warmed world".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 21.15(2021).