气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantification of uncertainties in the assessment of an atmospheric release source applied to the autumn 2017 106Ru event

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DOI	10.5194/acp-21-13247-2021
	Quantification of uncertainties in the assessment of an atmospheric release source applied to the autumn 2017 106Ru event
	Dumont Le Brazidec J.; Bocquet M.; Saunier O.; Roustan Y.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1680-7316
起始页码	13247
结束页码	13267
卷号	21 期号:17
英文摘要	Using a Bayesian framework in the inverse problem of estimating the source of an atmospheric release of a pollutant has proven fruitful in recent years. Through Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms, the statistical distribution of the release parameters such as the location, the duration, and the magnitude as well as error covariances can be sampled so as to get a complete characterisation of the source. In this study, several approaches are described and applied to better quantify these distributions, and therefore to get a better representation of the uncertainties. First, we propose a method based on ensemble forecasting: physical parameters of both the meteorological fields and the transport model are perturbed to create an enhanced ensemble. In order to account for physical model errors, the importance of ensemble members are represented by weights and sampled together with the other variables of the source. Second, once the choice of the statistical likelihood is shown to alter the nuclear source assessment, we suggest several suitable distributions for the errors. Finally, we propose two specific designs of the covariance matrix associated with the observation error. These methods are applied to the source term reconstruction of the 106Ru of unknown origin in Europe in autumn 2017.ĝ€¯A posteriori distributions meant to identify the origin of the release, to assess the source term, and to quantify the uncertainties associated with the observations and the model, as well as densities of the weights of the perturbed ensemble, are presented. © 2021 The Author(s).
语种	英语
scopus关键词	algorithm; assessment method; atmospheric pollution; autumn; ensemble forecasting; Markov chain; Monte Carlo analysis; pollutant source; pollutant transport; radioactive pollution; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/246602
作者单位	IRSN, PSE-SANTE, SESUC, BMCA, Fontenay-aux-Roses, France; CEREA, Joint Laboratory École des Ponts ParisTech and EDF RandD, Université Paris-Est, Marne-la-Vallée, France
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Dumont Le Brazidec J.,Bocquet M.,Saunier O.,et al. Quantification of uncertainties in the assessment of an atmospheric release source applied to the autumn 2017 106Ru event[J],2021,21(17).
APA	Dumont Le Brazidec J.,Bocquet M.,Saunier O.,&Roustan Y..(2021).Quantification of uncertainties in the assessment of an atmospheric release source applied to the autumn 2017 106Ru event.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,21(17).
MLA	Dumont Le Brazidec J.,et al."Quantification of uncertainties in the assessment of an atmospheric release source applied to the autumn 2017 106Ru event".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 21.17(2021).