气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Exploring the uncertainties in the aviation soot-cirrus effect

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DOI	10.5194/acp-21-17267-2021
	Exploring the uncertainties in the aviation soot-cirrus effect
	Righi M.; Hendricks J.; Beer C.G.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1680-7316
起始页码	17267
结束页码	17289
卷号	21 期号:23
英文摘要	A global aerosol-climate model, including a two-moment cloud microphysical scheme and a parametrization for aerosol-induced ice formation in cirrus clouds, is applied in order to quantify the impact of aviation soot on natural cirrus clouds. Several sensitivity experiments are performed to assess the uncertainties in this effect related to (i) the assumptions on the ice nucleation abilities of aviation soot, (ii) the representation of vertical updrafts in the model, and (iii) the use of reanalysis data to relax the model dynamics (the so-called nudging technique). Based on the results of the model simulations, a radiative forcing from the aviation soot-cirrus effect in the range of-35 to 13ĝ€¯mWĝ€¯m-2 is quantified, depending on the assumed critical saturation ratio for ice nucleation and active fraction of aviation soot but with a confidence level below 95ĝ€¯% in several cases. Simple idealized experiments with prescribed vertical velocities further show that the uncertainties on this aspect of the model dynamics are critical for the investigated effect and could potentially add a factor of about 2 of further uncertainty to the model estimates of the resulting radiative forcing. The use of the nudging technique to relax model dynamics is proved essential in order to identify a statistically significant signal from the model internal variability, while simulations performed in free-running mode and with prescribed sea-surface temperatures and sea-ice concentrations are shown to be unable to provide robust estimates of the investigated effect. A comparison with analogous model studies on the aviation soot-cirrus effect show a very large model diversity, with a conspicuous lack of consensus across the various estimates, which points to the need for more in-depth analyses on the roots of such discrepancies. © 2021 Mattia Righi et al.
语种	英语
scopus关键词	aerosol; cirrus; climate modeling; cloud microphysics; cloud radiative forcing; soot; uncertainty analysis
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/246410
作者单位	Deutsches Zentrum für Luft-und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Righi M.,Hendricks J.,Beer C.G.. Exploring the uncertainties in the aviation soot-cirrus effect[J],2021,21(23).
APA	Righi M.,Hendricks J.,&Beer C.G..(2021).Exploring the uncertainties in the aviation soot-cirrus effect.ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS,21(23).
MLA	Righi M.,et al."Exploring the uncertainties in the aviation soot-cirrus effect".ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 21.23(2021).