气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought

CCPortal

DOI	10.1126/science.aaz9600
	Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought
	Williams A.P.; Cook E.R.; Smerdon J.E.; Cook B.I.; Abatzoglou J.T.; Bolles K.; Baek S.H.; Badger A.M.; Livneh B.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	314
结束页码	318
卷号	368 期号:6488
英文摘要	Severe and persistent 21st-century drought in southwestern North America (SWNA) motivates comparisons to medieval megadroughts and questions about the role of anthropogenic climate change. We use hydrological modeling and new 1200-year tree-ring reconstructions of summer soil moisture to demonstrate that the 2000-2018 SWNA drought was the second driest 19-year period since 800 CE, exceeded only by a late-1500s megadrought. The megadrought-like trajectory of 2000-2018 soil moisture was driven by natural variability superimposed on drying due to anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic trends in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation estimated from 31 climate models account for 47% (model interquartiles of 35 to 105%) of the 2000-2018 drought severity, pushing an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst SWNA megadroughts since 800 CE. © 2020 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	anthropogenic effect; drought; global warming; hydrological modeling; reconstruction; tree ring; twenty first century; article; climate change; drought; humidity; Middle Ages; North America; precipitation; soil moisture; summer; warming; comparative study; drought; greenhouse effect; history; human activities; hydrology; soil; theoretical model; North America; Droughts; Global Warming; History, 21st Century; History, Medieval; Human Activities; Hydrology; Models, Theoretical; North America; Soil
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/246037
作者单位	Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, United States; NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, United States; Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844, United States; Management of Complex Systems Department, UC Merced, Merced, CA 95343, United States; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States; Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80302, United States; Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD 21046, United States; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States; Civil Environmental and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Williams A.P.,Cook E.R.,Smerdon J.E.,et al. Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought[J],2020,368(6488).
APA	Williams A.P..,Cook E.R..,Smerdon J.E..,Cook B.I..,Abatzoglou J.T..,...&Livneh B..(2020).Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought.Science,368(6488).
MLA	Williams A.P.,et al."Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought".Science 368.6488(2020).