气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Interpretation of high projections for global-mean warming

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DOI	10.1126/science.1061604
	Interpretation of high projections for global-mean warming
	Wigley T.M.L.; Raper S.C.B.
发表日期	2001
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	451
结束页码	454
卷号	293 期号:5529
英文摘要	The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has recently released its Third Assessment Report (TAR), in which new projections are given for global-mean warming in the absence of policies to limit climate change. The fuji warming range over 1990 to 2100, 1.4° to 5.8°C, is substantially higher than the range given previously in the IPCC Second Assessment Report. Here we interpret the new warming range in probabilistic terms, accounting for uncertainties in emissions, the climate sensitivity, the carbon cycle, ocean mixing, and aerosol forcing. We show that the probabilities of warming values at both the high and low ends of the TAR range are very low. In the absence of climate-mitigation policies, the 90% probability interval for 1990 to 2100 warming is 1.7° to 4.9°C.
英文关键词	Aerosols; Gas emissions; Ocean dumping; Probability distributions; Public policy; Carbon cycle; Global warming; climate change; global warming; air temperature; article; carbon dioxide fixation; climate; environmental monitoring; greenhouse effect; priority journal; research
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/246025
作者单位	Natl. Ctr. for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO 80307, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Wigley T.M.L.,Raper S.C.B.. Interpretation of high projections for global-mean warming[J],2001,293(5529).
APA	Wigley T.M.L.,&Raper S.C.B..(2001).Interpretation of high projections for global-mean warming.Science,293(5529).
MLA	Wigley T.M.L.,et al."Interpretation of high projections for global-mean warming".Science 293.5529(2001).