气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-021-01206-3
	A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts
	Sognnaes I.; Gambhir A.; van de Ven D.-J.; Nikas A.; Anger-Kraavi A.; Bui H.; Campagnolo L.; Delpiazzo E.; Doukas H.; Giarola S.; Grant N.; Hawkes A.; Köberle A.C.; Kolpakov A.; Mittal S.; Moreno J.; Perdana S.; Rogelj J.; Vielle M.; Peters G.P.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1758678X
起始页码	1055
结束页码	1062
卷号	11 期号:12
英文摘要	Most of the integrated assessment modelling literature focuses on cost-effective pathways towards given temperature goals. Conversely, using seven diverse integrated assessment models, we project global energy CO2 emissions trajectories on the basis of near-term mitigation efforts and two assumptions on how these efforts continue post-2030. Despite finding a wide range of emissions by 2050, nearly all the scenarios have median warming of less than 3 °C in 2100. However, the most optimistic scenario is still insufficient to limit global warming to 2 °C. We furthermore highlight key modelling choices inherent to projecting where emissions are headed. First, emissions are more sensitive to the choice of integrated assessment model than to the assumed mitigation effort, highlighting the importance of heterogeneous model intercomparisons. Differences across models reflect diversity in baseline assumptions and impacts of near-term mitigation efforts. Second, the common practice of using economy-wide carbon prices to represent policy exaggerates carbon capture and storage use compared with explicitly modelling policies. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
英文关键词	carbon dioxide; carbon emission; carbon sequestration; global warming; mitigation; numerical model
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/245545
作者单位	CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway; Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3), Leioa, Spain; Energy Policy Unit, School of Electrical and Computer Engineering, National Technical University of Athens, Athens, Greece; Climate Change Policy Group, Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom; Cambridge Econometrics, Cambridge, United Kingdom; RFF-CMCC European Institute on Economics and the Environment (EIEE), Venice, Italy; Department of Environmental Sciences, Informatics and Statistics, Ca’Foscari University of Venice, Venice, Italy; Euro-Mediterranean Center on Climate Change (CMCC), Venice, Italy; Department of Chemical Engineering, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russian Federation; École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Lausanne,...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sognnaes I.,Gambhir A.,van de Ven D.-J.,et al. A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts[J],2021,11(12).
APA	Sognnaes I..,Gambhir A..,van de Ven D.-J..,Nikas A..,Anger-Kraavi A..,...&Peters G.P..(2021).A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts.Nature Climate Change,11(12).
MLA	Sognnaes I.,et al."A multi-model analysis of long-term emissions and warming implications of current mitigation efforts".Nature Climate Change 11.12(2021).