气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity

CCPortal

DOI	10.1126/science.aaf6574
	Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity
	Sobel A.H.; Camargo S.J.; Hall T.M.; Lee C.-Y.; Tippett M.K.; Wing A.A.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	242
结束页码	246
卷号	353 期号:6296
英文摘要	Recent assessments agree that tropical cyclone intensity should increase as the climate warms. Less agreement exists on the detection of recent historical trends in tropical cyclone intensity.We interpret future and recent historical trends by using the theory of potential intensity, which predicts the maximum intensity achievable by a tropical cyclone in a given local environment. Although greenhouse gas-driven warming increases potential intensity, climate model simulations suggest that aerosol cooling has largely canceled that effect over the historical record. Large natural variability complicates analysis of trends, as do poleward shifts in the latitude of maximum intensity. In the absence of strong reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, future greenhouse gas forcing of potential intensity will increasingly dominate over aerosol forcing, leading to substantially larger increases in tropical cyclone intensities. Copyright 2016 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science; all rights reserved.
英文关键词	aerosol; climate modeling; greenhouse gas; historical record; human activity; nature-society relations; tropical cyclone; aerosol; carbon footprint; climate change; cooling; flooding; greenhouse gas; hurricane; priority journal; Review; sea level rise; simulation; warming; greenhouse effect; human; human activities; season; temperature; theoretical model; tropic climate; aerosol; Aerosols; Cyclonic Storms; Global Warming; Greenhouse Effect; Human Activities; Humans; Models, Theoretical; Seasons; Temperature; Tropical Climate
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/245541
作者单位	Department of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States; Columbia University, Lamont- Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY 10964, United States; NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, United States; International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, United States; Center of Excellence for Climate Research, Department of Meteorology, King Abdulaziz University, Jeddah, Saudi Arabia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sobel A.H.,Camargo S.J.,Hall T.M.,et al. Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity[J],2016,353(6296).
APA	Sobel A.H.,Camargo S.J.,Hall T.M.,Lee C.-Y.,Tippett M.K.,&Wing A.A..(2016).Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity.Science,353(6296).
MLA	Sobel A.H.,et al."Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity".Science 353.6296(2016).