气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model

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DOI	10.1126/science.1139540
	Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model
	Smith D.M.; Cusack S.; Colman A.W.; Folland C.K.; Harris G.R.; Murphy J.M.
发表日期	2007
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	796
结束页码	799
卷号	317 期号:5839
英文摘要	Previous climate model projections of climate change accounted for external forcing from natural and anthropogenic sources but did not attempt to predict internally generated natural variability. We present a new modeling system that predicts both internal variability and externally forced changes and hence forecasts surface temperature with substantially improved skill throughout a decade, both globally and in many regions. Our system predicts that internal variability will partially offset the anthropogenic global warming signal for the next few years. However, climate will continue to warm, with at least half of the years after 2009 predicted to exceed the warmest year currently on record.
英文关键词	climate change; climate modeling; global climate; global warming; human activity; surface temperature; accuracy; article; climate change; force; global climate; intermethod comparison; nonhuman; physical model; prediction; priority journal; skill; temperature measurement
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/245521
作者单位	Met Office Hadley Centre, FitzRoy Road, Exeter, Ex1 3PB, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Smith D.M.,Cusack S.,Colman A.W.,et al. Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model[J],2007,317(5839).
APA	Smith D.M.,Cusack S.,Colman A.W.,Folland C.K.,Harris G.R.,&Murphy J.M..(2007).Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model.Science,317(5839).
MLA	Smith D.M.,et al."Improved surface temperature prediction for the coming decade from a global climate model".Science 317.5839(2007).