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DOI10.1126/science.1115233
Ecology: Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe
Schröter D.; Cramer W.; Leemans R.; Prentice I.C.; Araújo M.B.; Arnell N.W.; Bondeau A.; Bugmann H.; Carter T.R.; Gracia C.A.; De La Vega-Leinert A.C.; Erhard M.; Ewert F.; Glendining M.; House J.I.; Kankaanpää S.; Klein R.J.T.; Lavorel S.; Lindner M.; Metzger M.J.; Meyer J.; Mitchell T.D.; Reginster I.; Rounsevell M.; Sabaté S.; Sitch S.; Smith B.; Smith J.; Smith P.; Sykes M.T.; Thonicke K.; Thuiller W.; Tuck G.; Zaehle S.; Zierl B.
发表日期2005
ISSN0036-8075
起始页码1333
结束页码1337
卷号310期号:5752
英文摘要Global change will alter the supply of ecosystem services that are vital for human well-being. To investigate ecosystem service supply during the 21st century, we used a range of ecosystem models and scenarios of climate and land-use change to conduct a Europe-wide assessment. Large changes in climate and land use typically resulted in large changes in ecosystem service supply. Some of these trends may be positive (for example, increases in forest area and productivity) or offer opportunities (for example, "surplus land" for agricultural extensification and bioenergy production). However, many changes increase vulnerability as a result of a decreasing supply of ecosystem services (for example, declining soil fertility, declining water availability, increasing risk of forest fires), especially in the Mediterranean and mountain regions.
英文关键词Agriculture; Climate change; Ecosystems; Forestry; Mathematical models; Soils; Agricultural extensification; Global change; Soil fertility; Ecology; carbon dioxide; carbon; climate change; ecosystem response; land use; water availability; article; bioenergy; climate; ecosystem; Europe; forest; global change; land use; priority journal; productivity; socioeconomics; soil fertility; Southern Europe; urbanization; water availability; agriculture; biodiversity; crop; environment; environmental protection; Europe; greenhouse effect; growth, development and aging; human; statistical model; theoretical model; tree; urban population; water supply; wood; Agriculture; Climates; Ecology; Ecosystems; Fertility; Forestry; Soil; Eurasia; Europe; Agriculture; Biodiversity; Carbon; Climate; Conservation of Natural Resources; Crops, Agricultural; Ecosystem; Environment; Europe; Greenhouse Effect; Humans; Models, Statistical; Models, Theoretical; Socioeconomic Factors; Trees; Urban Population; Water Supply; Wood
语种英语
来源期刊Science
文献类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/245396
作者单位Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany; Center for International Development, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States; Department of Environmental Sciences, Wageningen University, 6700 AA Wageningen, Netherlands; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, BS8 1RJ Bristol, United Kingdom; School of Geography and Environment, University of Oxford, OX1 3TB Oxford, United Kingdom; Museo Nacional de Ciencas Naturales, 28006 Madrid, Spain; Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Geography, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom; Department of Environmental Sciences, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule, 8092 Zürich, Switzerland; Finnish Environment Institute, 00251 Helsinki, Finland; Center for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications, University of Barcelona, 08193 Barcelona, Spain; Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research, Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany; Agriculture and...
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Schröter D.,Cramer W.,Leemans R.,et al. Ecology: Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe[J],2005,310(5752).
APA Schröter D..,Cramer W..,Leemans R..,Prentice I.C..,Araújo M.B..,...&Zierl B..(2005).Ecology: Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe.Science,310(5752).
MLA Schröter D.,et al."Ecology: Ecosystem service supply and vulnerability to global change in Europe".Science 310.5752(2005).
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