气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100

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DOI	10.1126/science.287.5459.1770
	Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100
	Sala O.E.; Chapin III F.S.; Armesto J.J.; Berlow E.; Bloomfield J.; Dirzo R.; Huber-Sanwald E.; Huenneke L.F.; Jackson R.B.; Kinzig A.; Leemans R.; Lodge D.M.; Mooney H.A.; Oesterheld M.; Poff N.L.; Sykes M.T.; Walker B.H.; Walker M.; Wall D.H.
发表日期	2000
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	1770
结束页码	1774
卷号	287 期号:5459
英文摘要	Scenarios of changes in biodiversity for the year 2100 can now be developed based on scenarios of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide, climate, vegetation, and land use and the known sensitivity of biodiversity to these changes. This study identified a ranking of the importance of drivers of change, a ranking of the biomes with respect to expected changes, and the major sources of uncertainties. For terrestrial ecosystems, land-use change probably will have the largest effect, followed by climate change, nitrogen deposition, biotic exchange, and elevated carbon dioxide concentration. For freshwater ecosystems, biotic exchange is much more important. Mediterranean climate and grassland ecosystems likely will experience the greatest proportional change in biodiversity because of the substantial influence of all drivers of biodiversity change. Northern temperate ecosystems are estimated to experience the least biodiversity change because major land-use change has already occurred. Plausible changes in biodiversity in other biomes depend on interactions among the causes of biodiversity change. These interactions represent one of the largest uncertainties in projections of future biodiversity change.
英文关键词	carbon dioxide; fresh water; nitrogen; atmospheric chemistry; biodiversity; climate change; land use; temporal variation; atmosphere; biodiversity; climate; ecosystem; futurology; human; land use; nonhuman; priority journal; review; vegetation; Agriculture; Animals; Atmosphere; Carbon Dioxide; Climate; Ecosystem; Fresh Water; Models, Biological; Nitrogen
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/245323
作者单位	Department of Ecology, Inst. Invest. Fisiol. y E., University of Buenos Aires, Avenida San Martín 4453, Buenos Aires 1417, Argentina; Institute of Arctic Biology, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States; Inst. of N. Forest Coop. Research, University of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK 99775, United States; Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile, Casilla 653, Santiago, Chile; Department of Integrative Biology, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720, United States; Environmental Defense Fund, 257 Park Avenue, New York, NY 10010, United States; Instituto de Ecología, UNAM, México 04510, Mexico; Lehrstuhl fur Grunlandlehre, Technische Universitat, Munchen, D85350, Germany; Department of Biology, New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM 88003, United States; Department of Botany, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, United States; Department of Biology, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287, United States; Natl. Inst. Pub. Hlth. the Environ., Bilthoven, Netherlands; Department of Biology, ...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sala O.E.,Chapin III F.S.,Armesto J.J.,et al. Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100[J],2000,287(5459).
APA	Sala O.E..,Chapin III F.S..,Armesto J.J..,Berlow E..,Bloomfield J..,...&Wall D.H..(2000).Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100.Science,287(5459).
MLA	Sala O.E.,et al."Global biodiversity scenarios for the year 2100".Science 287.5459(2000).