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DOI	10.1126/science.1259100
	Projected increase in lightning strikes in the united states due to global warming
	Romps D.M.; Seeley J.T.; Vollaro D.; Molinari J.
发表日期	2014
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	851
结束页码	854
卷号	346 期号:6211
英文摘要	Lightning plays an important role in atmospheric chemistry and in the initiation of wildfires, but the impact of global warming on lightning rates is poorly constrained. Here we propose that the lightning flash rate is proportional to the convective available potential energy (CAPE) times the precipitation rate. Using observations, the product of CAPE and precipitation explains 77% of the variance in the time series of total cloud-toground lightning flashes over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Storms convert CAPE times precipitated water mass to discharged lightning energy with an efficiency of 1%.When this proxy is applied to 11 climate models, CONUS lightning strikes are predicted to increase 12 ± 5% per degree Celsius of global warming and about 50% over this century. Copyright 2014 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science; all rights reserved.
英文关键词	atmospheric chemistry; climate modeling; global warming; lightning; precipitation (climatology); storm; time series; water mass; wildfire; Article; climate change; electric potential; greenhouse effect; lightning; Northern Hemisphere; sea surface temperature; spring; summer; time; time series analysis; United States; water content; thermodynamics; Convection; Global Warming; Lightning; United States
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/245272
作者单位	Department of Earth and Planetary Science, University of California, Berkeley, and Earth Sciences Division, Berkeley, CA, United States; Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, State University of New York at Albany, Albany, NY, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Romps D.M.,Seeley J.T.,Vollaro D.,et al. Projected increase in lightning strikes in the united states due to global warming[J],2014,346(6211).
APA	Romps D.M.,Seeley J.T.,Vollaro D.,&Molinari J..(2014).Projected increase in lightning strikes in the united states due to global warming.Science,346(6211).
MLA	Romps D.M.,et al."Projected increase in lightning strikes in the united states due to global warming".Science 346.6211(2014).