气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climatic limit for agriculture in Brazil

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-021-01214-3
	Climatic limit for agriculture in Brazil
	Rattis L.; Brando P.M.; Macedo M.N.; Spera S.A.; Castanho A.D.A.; Marques E.Q.; Costa N.Q.; Silverio D.V.; Coe M.T.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1758678X
起始页码	1098
结束页码	1104
卷号	11 期号:12
英文摘要	Brazil’s leadership in soybean and maize production depends on predictable rainfall in the Amazon-Cerrado agricultural frontier. Here we assess whether agricultural expansion and intensification in the region are approaching a climatic limit to rainfed production. We show that yields decline in years with unusually low rainfall or high aridity during the early stages of crop development—a pattern observed in rainfed and irrigated areas alike. Although agricultural expansion and intensification have increased over time, dry–hot weather during drought events has slowed their rate of growth. Recent regional warming and drying already have pushed 28% of current agricultural lands out of their optimum climate space. We project that 51% of the region’s agriculture will move out of that climate space by 2030 and 74% by 2060. Although agronomic adaptation strategies may relieve some of these impacts, maintaining native vegetation is a critical part of the solution for stabilizing the regional climate. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
英文关键词	agricultural intensification; climate change; crop plant; crop production; drought; rainfall; rainfed agriculture; regional climate; strategic approach; Amazonia; Brazil; Glycine max
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/245181
作者单位	Woodwell Climate Research Center, Falmouth, MA, United States; Instituto de Pesquisa Ambiental da Amazônia, Canarana, Brazil; Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, United States; Department of Geography and the Environment, University of Richmond, Richmond, VA, United States; Universidade do Estado do Mato Grosso, Nova Xavantina, Brazil; Universidade Federal Rural da Amazônia, Capitão Poço, Brazil
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rattis L.,Brando P.M.,Macedo M.N.,et al. Climatic limit for agriculture in Brazil[J],2021,11(12).
APA	Rattis L..,Brando P.M..,Macedo M.N..,Spera S.A..,Castanho A.D.A..,...&Coe M.T..(2021).Climatic limit for agriculture in Brazil.Nature Climate Change,11(12).
MLA	Rattis L.,et al."Climatic limit for agriculture in Brazil".Nature Climate Change 11.12(2021).