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DOI	10.1126/science.aat6777
	Serotype-specific immunity explains the incidence of diseases caused by human enteroviruses
	Pons-Salort M.; Grassly N.C.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	800
结束页码	803
卷号	361 期号:6404
英文摘要	Human enteroviruses are a major cause of neurological and other diseases. More than 100 serotypes are known that exhibit unexplained complex patterns of incidence, from regular cycles to more irregular patterns, and new emergences. Using 15 years of surveillance data from Japan (2000–2014) and a stochastic transmission model with accurate demography, we show that acquired serotype-specific immunity can explain the diverse patterns of 18 of the 20 most common serotypes (including Coxsackieviruses, Echoviruses, and Enterovirus-A71). The remaining two serotypes required a change in viral characteristics, including an increase in pathogenicity for Coxsackievirus-A6, which is consistent with its recent global rise in incidence. On the basis of our findings, we are able to predict outbreaks 2 years ahead of time (2015–2016). These results have implications for the impact of vaccines under development. © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science.
英文关键词	detection method; disease incidence; immunity; neurology; pathogenicity; viral disease; virus; Article; Coxsackievirus A6; disease surveillance; Enterovirus; Enterovirus A71; Enterovirus B; Enterovirus infection; epidemic; human; incidence; Japan; microbial diversity; nonhuman; priority journal; serotype; stochastic model; virus immunity; virus transmission; virus virulence; classification; Enterovirus infection; epidemic; epidemiological monitoring; immunology; pathogenicity; serotyping; Japan; Coxsackievirus; Enterovirus; virus vaccine; Disease Outbreaks; Enterovirus; Enterovirus Infections; Epidemiological Monitoring; Humans; Incidence; Serogroup; Serotyping; Viral Vaccines
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/245112
作者单位	Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, St Mary’s Campus, Imperial College London, London, W2 1PG, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Pons-Salort M.,Grassly N.C.. Serotype-specific immunity explains the incidence of diseases caused by human enteroviruses[J],2018,361(6404).
APA	Pons-Salort M.,&Grassly N.C..(2018).Serotype-specific immunity explains the incidence of diseases caused by human enteroviruses.Science,361(6404).
MLA	Pons-Salort M.,et al."Serotype-specific immunity explains the incidence of diseases caused by human enteroviruses".Science 361.6404(2018).