气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission

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DOI	10.1126/science.aag2345
	Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission
	Notz D.; Stroeve J.
发表日期	2016
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	747
结束页码	750
卷号	354 期号:6313
英文摘要	Arctic sea ice is retreating rapidly, raising prospects of a future ice-free Arctic Ocean during summer. Because climate-model simulations of the sea-ice loss differ substantially, we used a robust linear relationship between monthly-mean September sea-ice area and cumulative carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions to infer the future evolution of Arctic summer sea ice directly from the observational record. The observed linear relationship implies a sustained loss of 3 ± 0.3 square meters of September sea-ice area per metric ton of CO2 emission. On the basis of this sensitivity, Arctic sea ice will be lost throughout September for an additional 1000 gigatons of CO2 emissions. Most models show a lower sensitivity, which is possibly linked to an underestimation of the modeled increase in incoming longwave radiation and of the modeled transient climate response. © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	carbon dioxide; carbon dioxide; anthropogenic effect; carbon dioxide; carbon emission; climate modeling; longwave radiation; observational method; sea ice; Arctic; Article; atmosphere; carbon footprint; climate; climate change; energy balance; human activities; humidity; latitude; priority journal; radiative forcing; sea ice; simulation; summer; surface property; temperature; troposphere; Arctic; computer simulation; greenhouse effect; human; ice cover; season; theoretical model; Arctic Ocean; Arctic Regions; Carbon Dioxide; Computer Simulation; Global Warming; Greenhouse Effect; Humans; Ice Cover; Models, Theoretical; Seasons
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/244916
作者单位	Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany; National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder, CO, United States; University College, London, United Kingdom
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Notz D.,Stroeve J.. Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission[J],2016,354(6313).
APA	Notz D.,&Stroeve J..(2016).Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission.Science,354(6313).
MLA	Notz D.,et al."Observed Arctic sea-ice loss directly follows anthropogenic CO2 emission".Science 354.6313(2016).