气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate trends and global crop production since 1980

CCPortal

DOI	10.1126/science.1204531
	Climate trends and global crop production since 1980
	Lobell D.B.; Schlenker W.; Costa-Roberts J.
发表日期	2011
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	616
结束页码	620
卷号	333 期号:6042
英文摘要	Efforts to anticipate how climate change will affect future food availability can benefit from understanding the impacts of changes to date. We found that in the cropping regions and growing seasons of most countries, with the important exception of the United States, temperature trends from 1980 to 2008 exceeded one standard deviation of historic year-to-year variability. Models that link yields of the four largest commodity crops to weather indicate that global maize and wheat production declined by 3.8 and 5.5%, respectively, relative to a counterfactual without climate trends. For soybeans and rice, winners and losers largely balanced out. Climate trends were large enough in some countries to offset a significant portion of the increases in average yields that arose from technology, carbon dioxide fertilization, and other factors.
英文关键词	carbon dioxide; agricultural modeling; agricultural technology; carbon dioxide; climate change; climate conditions; climate effect; crop production; crop yield; fertilizer application; food availability; future prospect; global perspective; growing season; maize; rice; soybean; temperature profile; trend analysis; wheat; yield response; article; climate; climate change; crop; crop production; fertilization; priority journal; rice; soybean; temperature; United States; Climate Change; Crops, Agricultural; Nonlinear Dynamics; Oryza sativa; Regression Analysis; Seasons; Soybeans; Temperature; Triticum; Weather; Zea mays; Glycine max; Triticum aestivum; Zea mays
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/244567
作者单位	Department of Environmental Earth System Science, Program on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305, United States; Department of Economics, School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States; National Bureau of Economic Research, New York, NY 10016, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lobell D.B.,Schlenker W.,Costa-Roberts J.. Climate trends and global crop production since 1980[J],2011,333(6042).
APA	Lobell D.B.,Schlenker W.,&Costa-Roberts J..(2011).Climate trends and global crop production since 1980.Science,333(6042).
MLA	Lobell D.B.,et al."Climate trends and global crop production since 1980".Science 333.6042(2011).