气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modeling the climatic response to orbital variations

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DOI	10.1126/science.207.4434.943
	Modeling the climatic response to orbital variations
	Imbrie J.; Imbrie J.Z.
发表日期	1980
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	943
结束页码	953
卷号	207 期号:4434
英文摘要	According to the astronomical theory of climate, variations in the earth's orbit are the fundamental cause of the succession of Pleistocene ice ages. This article summarizes how the theory has evolved since the pioneer studies of James Croll and Milutin Milankovitch, reviews recent evidence that supports the theory, and argues that a major opportunity is at hand to investigate the physical mechanisms by which the climate system responds to orbital forcing. After a survey of the kinds of models that have been applied to this problem, a strategy is suggested for building simple, physically motivated models, and a time-dependent model is developed that simulates the history of planetary glaciation for the past 500,000 years. Ignoring anthropogenic and other possible sources of variation acting at frequencies higher than one cycle per 19,000 years, this model predicts that the long-term cooling trend which began some 6000 years ago will continue for the next 23,000 years. Copyright © 1980 AAAS.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/244117
作者单位	Department of Oceanography, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912, United States; National Science Foundation predoctoral, Department of Physics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Imbrie J.,Imbrie J.Z.. Modeling the climatic response to orbital variations[J],1980,207(4434).
APA	Imbrie J.,&Imbrie J.Z..(1980).Modeling the climatic response to orbital variations.Science,207(4434).
MLA	Imbrie J.,et al."Modeling the climatic response to orbital variations".Science 207.4434(1980).