气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Near-term transition and longer-term physical climate risks of greenhouse gas emissions pathways

CCPortal

DOI	10.1038/s41558-021-01236-x
	Near-term transition and longer-term physical climate risks of greenhouse gas emissions pathways
	Gambhir A.; George M.; McJeon H.; Arnell N.W.; Bernie D.; Mittal S.; Köberle A.C.; Lowe J.; Rogelj J.; Monteith S.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1758678X
英文摘要	Policy, business, finance and civil society stakeholders are increasingly looking to compare future emissions pathways across both their associated physical climate risks stemming from increasing temperatures and their transition climate risks stemming from the shift to a low-carbon economy. Here, we present an integrated framework to explore near-term (to 2030) transition risks and longer-term (to 2050) physical risks, globally and in specific regions, for a range of plausible greenhouse gas emissions and associated temperature pathways, spanning 1.5–4 °C levels of long-term warming. By 2050, physical risks deriving from major heatwaves, agricultural drought, heat stress and crop duration reductions depend greatly on the temperature pathway. By 2030, transition risks most sensitive to temperature pathways stem from economy-wide mitigation costs, carbon price increases, fossil fuel demand reductions and coal plant capacity reductions. Considering several pathways with a 2 °C target demonstrates that transition risks also depend on technological, policy and socio-economic factors. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/243773
作者单位	Grantham Institute - Climate Change and the Environment, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; Center for Global Sustainability, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, United States; Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, MD, United States; Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, Reading, United Kingdom; Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, United Kingdom; Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom; Priestley International Centre for Climate, University of Leeds, Leeds, United Kingdom; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London, London, United Kingdom; ClimateWorks Foundation, San Francisco, CA, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gambhir A.,George M.,McJeon H.,et al. Near-term transition and longer-term physical climate risks of greenhouse gas emissions pathways[J],2021.
APA	Gambhir A..,George M..,McJeon H..,Arnell N.W..,Bernie D..,...&Monteith S..(2021).Near-term transition and longer-term physical climate risks of greenhouse gas emissions pathways.Nature Climate Change.
MLA	Gambhir A.,et al."Near-term transition and longer-term physical climate risks of greenhouse gas emissions pathways".Nature Climate Change (2021).