气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations

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DOI	10.1126/science.1064419
	Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations
	Forest C.E.; Stone P.H.; Sokolov A.P.; Allen M.R.; Webster M.D.
发表日期	2002
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	113
结束页码	117
卷号	295 期号:5552
英文摘要	We derive joint probability density distributions for three key uncertain properties of the climate system, using an optimal fingerprinting approach to compare simulations of an intermediate complexity climate model with three distinct diagnostics of recent climate observations. On the basis of the marginal probability distributions, the 5 to 95% confidence intervals are 1.4 to 7.7 kelvin for climate sensitivity and -0.30 to -0.95 watt per square meter for the net aerosol forcing. The oceanic heat uptake is not well constrained, but ocean temperature observations do help to constrain climate sensitivity. The uncertainty in the net aerosol forcing is much smaller than the uncertainty range for the indirect aerosol forcing alone given in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Third Assessment Report.
英文关键词	Aerosols; Climate change; Computer simulation; Diagnosis; Probability distributions; Climate observations; Climatology; climate modeling; observational method; sensitivity analysis; uncertainty analysis; aerosol; article; diffusion; global climate; heat transfer; priority journal; probability; sea; water temperature
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/243718
作者单位	Joint Prog. Sci. Plcy. Global Change, Massachusetts Inst. of Technology, Cambridge, MA 02139, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Forest C.E.,Stone P.H.,Sokolov A.P.,et al. Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations[J],2002,295(5552).
APA	Forest C.E.,Stone P.H.,Sokolov A.P.,Allen M.R.,&Webster M.D..(2002).Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations.Science,295(5552).
MLA	Forest C.E.,et al."Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations".Science 295.5552(2002).