气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change

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DOI	10.1038/s41558-021-01218-z
	Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change
	Drouet L.; Bosetti V.; Padoan S.A.; Aleluia Reis L.; Bertram C.; Dalla Longa F.; Després J.; Emmerling J.; Fosse F.; Fragkiadakis K.; Frank S.; Fricko O.; Fujimori S.; Harmsen M.; Krey V.; Oshiro K.; Nogueira L.P.; Paroussos L.; Piontek F.; Riahi K.; Rochedo P.R.R.; Schaeffer R.; Takakura J.; van der Wijst K.-I.; van der Zwaan B.; van Vuuren D.; Vrontisi Z.; Weitzel M.; Zakeri B.; Tavoni M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	1758678X
起始页码	1070
结束页码	1076
卷号	11 期号:12
英文摘要	Mitigation pathways exploring end-of-century temperature targets often entail temperature overshoot. Little is known about the additional climate risks generated by overshooting temperature. Here we assessed the benefits of limiting overshoot. We computed the probabilistic impacts for different warming targets and overshoot levels on the basis of an ensemble of integrated assessment models. We explored both physical and macroeconomic impacts, including persistent and non-persistent climate impacts. We found that temperature overshooting affects the likelihood of many critical physical impacts, such as those associated with heat extremes. Limiting overshoot reduces risk in the right tail of the distribution, in particular for low-temperature targets where larger overshoots arise as a way to lower short-term mitigation costs. We also showed how, after mid-century, overshoot leads to both higher mitigation costs and economic losses from the additional impacts. The study highlights the need to include climate risk analysis in low-carbon pathways. © 2021, The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer Nature Limited.
英文关键词	climate change; cost analysis; economic conditions; integrated approach; nature-society relations
语种	英语
来源期刊	Nature Climate Change
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/243571
作者单位	RFF-CMCC European Institute of Economics and the Environment, Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici, Milan, Italy; Department of Economics and IGIER, Bocconi University, Milan, Italy; Department of Decision Sciences, Bocconi University of Milan and Centro Euro-Mediterraneo sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), Milan, Italy; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany; TNO Energy Transition, Amsterdam, Netherlands; European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC), Seville, Spain; E3Modelling, Athens, Greece; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Laxenburg, Austria; Department of Environmental Engineering, Kyoto University, Kyoto, Japan; National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, Netherlands; Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, Netherlands; Graz University of Technology, Graz, Austria; CE...
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Drouet L.,Bosetti V.,Padoan S.A.,et al. Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change[J],2021,11(12).
APA	Drouet L..,Bosetti V..,Padoan S.A..,Aleluia Reis L..,Bertram C..,...&Tavoni M..(2021).Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change.Nature Climate Change,11(12).
MLA	Drouet L.,et al."Net zero-emission pathways reduce the physical and economic risks of climate change".Nature Climate Change 11.12(2021).