Climate Change Data Portal
| DOI | 10.1126/science.289.5477.270 |
| Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years | |
| Crowley T.J. | |
| 发表日期 | 2000 |
| ISSN | 0036-8075 |
| 起始页码 | 270 |
| 结束页码 | 277 |
| 卷号 | 289期号:5477 |
| 英文摘要 | Recent reconstructions of Northern Hemisphere temperatures and climate forcing over the past 1000 years allow the warming of the 20th century to be placed within a historical context and various mechanisms of climate change to be tested. Comparisons of observations with simulations from an energy balance climate model indicate that as much as 41 to 64% of preanthropogenic (pre-1850) decadal-scale temperature variations was due to changes in solar irradiance and volcanism. Removal of the forced response from reconstructed temperature time series yields residuals that show similar variability to those of control runs of coupled models, thereby lending support to the models' value as estimates of low-frequency variability in the climate system. Removal of all forcing except greenhouse gases from the ~1000-year time series results in a residual with a very large late-20th-century warming that closely agrees with the response predicted from greenhouse gas forcing. The combination of a unique level of temperature increase in the late 20th century and improved constraints on the role of natural variability provides further evidence that the greenhouse effect has already established itself above the level of natural variability in the climate system. A 21st-century global warming projection far exceeds the natural variability of the past 1000 years and is greater than the best estimate of global temperature change for the last interglacial. |
| 英文关键词 | climate change; global warming; greenhouse gas; paleoclimate; solar radiation; time series analysis; volcanism; Antarctica; article; climate; correlation function; greenhouse effect; model; priority journal; stratosphere; temperature |
| 语种 | 英语 |
| 来源期刊 | Science
 |
| 文献类型 | 期刊论文 |
| 条目标识符 | http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/243434 |
| 作者单位 | Department of Oceanography, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX 77843, United States |
| 推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Crowley T.J.. Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years[J],2000,289(5477). |
| APA | Crowley T.J..(2000).Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years.Science,289(5477). |
| MLA | Crowley T.J.."Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years".Science 289.5477(2000). |
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