气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Forecasting fire season severity in South America using sea surface temperature anomalies

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DOI	10.1126/science.1209472
	Forecasting fire season severity in South America using sea surface temperature anomalies
	Chen Y.; Randerson J.T.; Morton D.C.; DeFries R.S.; Collatz G.J.; Kasibhatla P.S.; Giglio L.; Jin Y.; Marlier M.E.
发表日期	2011
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	787
结束页码	791
卷号	334 期号:6057
英文摘要	Fires in South America cause forest degradation and contribute to carbon emissions associated with land use change. We investigated the relationship between year-to-year changes in fire activity in South America and sea surface temperatures. We found that the Oceanic Niño Index was correlated with interannual fire activity in the eastern Amazon, whereas the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation index was more closely linked with fires in the southern and southwestern Amazon. Combining these two climate indices, we developed an empirical model to forecast regional fire season severity with lead times of 3 to 5 months. Our approach may contribute to the development of an early warning system for anticipating the vulnerability of Amazon forests to fires, thus enabling more effective management with benefits for climate and air quality.
英文关键词	air quality; Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation; carbon emission; early warning system; empirical analysis; fire behavior; land use change; sea surface temperature; temperature anomaly; vulnerability; weather forecasting; air quality; article; Brazil; climate; deforestation; fire; forecasting; forest; humidity; model; precipitation; prediction; priority journal; sea surface temperature; South America; Amazonas [Brazil]; Brazil; South America
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/243308
作者单位	Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, United States; NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Biospheric Sciences Branch, Greenbelt, MD 20771, United States; Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States; Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, United States; Department of Geography, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, United States; Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Chen Y.,Randerson J.T.,Morton D.C.,et al. Forecasting fire season severity in South America using sea surface temperature anomalies[J],2011,334(6057).
APA	Chen Y..,Randerson J.T..,Morton D.C..,DeFries R.S..,Collatz G.J..,...&Marlier M.E..(2011).Forecasting fire season severity in South America using sea surface temperature anomalies.Science,334(6057).
MLA	Chen Y.,et al."Forecasting fire season severity in South America using sea surface temperature anomalies".Science 334.6057(2011).