气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Climate sensitivity uncertainty and the need for energy without CO2 emission

CCPortal

DOI	10.1126/science.1078938
	Climate sensitivity uncertainty and the need for energy without CO2 emission
	Caldeira K.; Jain A.K.; Hoffert M.I.
发表日期	2003
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	2052
结束页码	2054
卷号	299 期号:5615
英文摘要	The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change calls for "stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system." Even if we could determine a "safe" level of interference in the climate system, the sensitivity of global mean temperature to increasing atmospheric CO2 is known perhaps only to a factor of three or less. Here we show how a factor of three uncertainty in climate sensitivity introduces even greater uncertainty in allowable increases in atmospheric CO2 concentration and allowable CO2 emissions. Nevertheless, unless climate sensitivity is low and acceptable amounts of climate change are high, climate stabilization will require a massive transition to CO2 emission-free energy technologies.
英文关键词	Carbon dioxide; Free energy; Thermal effects; Greenhouse gas; Climate change; carbon dioxide; carbon dioxide; climate change; climate modeling; greenhouse gas; sensitivity analysis; uncertainty analysis; United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change; article; carbon dioxide measurement; climate; concentration response; energy; gas analysis; greenhouse; molecular stability; phase transition; priority journal
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/243215
作者单位	Energy and Environment Directorate, Lawrence Livermore Natl. Laboratory, 7000 East Avenue, Livermore, CA 94550, United States; Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Illinois, 105 South Gregory Street, Urbana, IL 61801, United States; Department of Physics, MC 1026, New York University, 4 Washington Place, New York, NY 10003-6621, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Caldeira K.,Jain A.K.,Hoffert M.I.. Climate sensitivity uncertainty and the need for energy without CO2 emission[J],2003,299(5615).
APA	Caldeira K.,Jain A.K.,&Hoffert M.I..(2003).Climate sensitivity uncertainty and the need for energy without CO2 emission.Science,299(5615).
MLA	Caldeira K.,et al."Climate sensitivity uncertainty and the need for energy without CO2 emission".Science 299.5615(2003).