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DOI	10.1126/science.aam5979
	Contingency and determinism in evolution: Replaying life’s tape
	Blount Z.D.; Lenski R.E.; Losos J.B.
发表日期	2018
ISSN	0036-8075
卷号	362 期号:6415
英文摘要	Historical processes display some degree of “contingency,” meaning their outcomes are sensitive to seemingly inconsequential events that can fundamentally change the future. Contingency is what makes historical outcomes unpredictable. Unlike many other natural phenomena, evolution is a historical process. Evolutionary change is often driven by the deterministic force of natural selection, but natural selection works upon variation that arises unpredictably through time by random mutation, and even beneficial mutations can be lost by chance through genetic drift. Moreover, evolution has taken place within a planetary environment with a particular history of its own. This tension between determinism and contingency makes evolutionary biology a kind of hybrid between science and history. While philosophers of science examine the nuances of contingency, biologists have performed many empirical studies of evolutionary repeatability and contingency. Here, we review the experimental and comparative evidence from these studies. Replicate populations in evolutionary “replay” experiments often show parallel changes, especially in overall performance, although idiosyncratic outcomes show that the particulars of a lineage’s history can affect which of several evolutionary paths is taken. Comparative biologists have found many notable examples of convergent adaptation to similar conditions, but quantification of how frequently such convergence occurs is difficult. On balance, the evidence indicates that evolution tends to be surprisingly repeatable among closely related lineages, but disparate outcomes become more likely as the footprint of history grows deeper. Ongoing research on the structure of adaptive landscapes is providing additional insight into the interplay of fate and chance in the evolutionary process. © 2018 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	biologist; biology; empiricism; genetic drift; human; landscape; mutation; natural selection; review; tension; adaptation; animal; evolution; genetic selection; genetics; laboratory; Adaptation, Biological; Animals; Biological Evolution; Humans; Laboratories; Selection, Genetic
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/243067
作者单位	Department of Microbiology and Molecular Genetics, BEACON Center for the Study of Evolution in Action, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824, United States; Department of Biology, Kenyon College, Gambier, OH 43022, United States; Department of Biology, Washington University, St. Louis, MO 63130, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Blount Z.D.,Lenski R.E.,Losos J.B.. Contingency and determinism in evolution: Replaying life’s tape[J],2018,362(6415).
APA	Blount Z.D.,Lenski R.E.,&Losos J.B..(2018).Contingency and determinism in evolution: Replaying life’s tape.Science,362(6415).
MLA	Blount Z.D.,et al."Contingency and determinism in evolution: Replaying life’s tape".Science 362.6415(2018).