气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes

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DOI	10.1126/science.1180568
	Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes
	Bender M.A.; Knutson T.R.; Tuleya R.E.; Sirutis J.J.; Vecchi G.A.; Garner S.T.; Held I.M.
发表日期	2010
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	454
结束页码	458
卷号	327 期号:5964
英文摘要	Several recent models suggest that the frequency of Atlantic tropical cyclones could decrease as the climate warms. However, these models are unable to reproduce storms of category 3 or higher intensity. We explored the influence of future global warming on Atlantic hurricanes with a downscaling strategy by using an operational hurricane-prediction model that produces a realistic distribution of intense hurricane activity for present-day conditions. The model projects nearly a doubling of the frequency of category 4 and 5 storms by the end of the 21st century, despite a decrease in the overall frequency of tropical cyclones, when the downscaling is based on the ensemble mean of 18 global climate-change projections. The largest increase is projected to occur in the Western Atlantic, north of 20°N.
英文关键词	anthropogenic effect; climate modeling; downscaling; ensemble forecasting; global warming; hurricane; twenty first century; article; Atlantic islands; climate; climate change; greenhouse effect; hurricane; priority journal; sea surface temperature; Atlantic Ocean; Atlantic Ocean (West)
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/243013
作者单位	National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, 201 Forrestal Road, Princeton, NJ, 08540, United States; Center for Coastal Physical Oceanography, Old Dominion University, 4111 Monarch Way, Norfolk, VA 23508, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bender M.A.,Knutson T.R.,Tuleya R.E.,et al. Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes[J],2010,327(5964).
APA	Bender M.A..,Knutson T.R..,Tuleya R.E..,Sirutis J.J..,Vecchi G.A..,...&Held I.M..(2010).Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes.Science,327(5964).
MLA	Bender M.A.,et al."Modeled impact of anthropogenic warming on the frequency of intense Atlantic hurricanes".Science 327.5964(2010).