气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat

CCPortal

DOI	10.1126/science.1164363
	Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat
	Battisti D.S.; Naylor R.L.
发表日期	2009
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	240
结束页码	244
卷号	323 期号:5911
英文摘要	Higher growing season temperatures can have dramatic impacts on agricultural productivity, farm incomes, and food security. We used observational data and output from 23 global climate models to show a high probability (>90%) that growing season temperatures in the tropics and subtropics by the end of the 21st century will exceed the most extreme seasonal temperatures recorded from 1900 to 2006. In temperate regions, the hottest seasons on record will represent the future norm in many locations. We used historical examples to illustrate the magnitude of damage to food systems caused by extreme seasonal heat and show that these short-run events could become longterm trends without sufficient investments in adaptation.
英文关键词	agricultural production; climate modeling; food availability; global climate; growing season; history; seasonal variation; temperate environment; temperature effect; twenty first century; agriculture; article; climate; environmental temperature; food safety; history; income; observational study; priority journal; probability; season; tropics; Africa South of the Sahara; Agriculture; Animals; Animals, Domestic; Climate; Commerce; Crops, Agricultural; Droughts; Extreme Heat; Food; Food Supply; Forecasting; France; Greenhouse Effect; Hot Temperature; Humans; Seasons; Tropical Climate; Ukraine
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/242987
作者单位	Department of Atmospheric Sciences, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195-1640, United States; Program on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305-6055, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Battisti D.S.,Naylor R.L.. Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat[J],2009,323(5911).
APA	Battisti D.S.,&Naylor R.L..(2009).Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat.Science,323(5911).
MLA	Battisti D.S.,et al."Historical warnings of future food insecurity with unprecedented seasonal heat".Science 323.5911(2009).