气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Detection of anthropogenic climate change in the world's oceans

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DOI	10.1126/science.1058304
	Detection of anthropogenic climate change in the world's oceans
	Barnett T.P.; Pierce D.W.; Schnur R.
发表日期	2001
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	270
结束页码	274
卷号	292 期号:5515
英文摘要	Large-scale increases in the heat content of the world's oceans have been observed to occur over the last 45 years. The horizontal and temporal character of these changes has been closely replicated by the state-of-the-art Parallel Climate Model (PCM) forced by observed and estimated anthropogenic gases. Application of optimal detection methodology shows that the model-produced signals are indistinguishable from the observations at the 0.05 confidence level. Further, the chances of either the anthropogenic or observed signals being produced by the PCM as a result of natural, internal forcing alone are less than 5%. This suggests that the observed ocean heat-content changes are consistent with those expected from anthropogenic forcing, which broadens the basis for claims that an anthropogenic signal has been detected in the global climate system. Additionally, the requirement that modeled ocean heat uptakes match observations puts a strong, new constraint on anthropogenically forced climate models. It is unknown if the current generation of climate models, other than the PCM, meet this constraint.
英文关键词	Oceanography; Parallel climate model (PCM); Climate change; air-sea interaction; anthropogenic effect; climate change; global warming; aerosol; air temperature; article; atmospheric dispersion; global climate; greenhouse effect; heat transfer; meteorology; methodology; ozone layer; prediction; priority journal; signal detection; volcano
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/242962
作者单位	Climate Research Division, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, University of California, San Diego, CA 92093, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Barnett T.P.,Pierce D.W.,Schnur R.. Detection of anthropogenic climate change in the world's oceans[J],2001,292(5515).
APA	Barnett T.P.,Pierce D.W.,&Schnur R..(2001).Detection of anthropogenic climate change in the world's oceans.Science,292(5515).
MLA	Barnett T.P.,et al."Detection of anthropogenic climate change in the world's oceans".Science 292.5515(2001).