气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

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DOI	10.1126/science.abc2535
	Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic
	Baker R.E.; Yang W.; Vecchi G.A.; Metcalf C.J.E.; Grenfell B.T.
发表日期	2020
ISSN	0036-8075
起始页码	315
结束页码	319
卷号	369 期号:6501
英文摘要	Preliminary evidence suggests that climate may modulate the transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Yet it remains unclear whether seasonal and geographic variations in climate can substantially alter the pandemic trajectory, given that high susceptibility is a core driver. Here, we use a climate-dependent epidemic model to simulate the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic by probing different scenarios based on known coronavirus biology. We find that although variations in weather may be important for endemic infections, during the pandemic stage of an emerging pathogen, the climate drives only modest changes to pandemic size. A preliminary analysis of nonpharmaceutical control measures indicates that they may moderate the pandemic-climate interaction through susceptible depletion. Our findings suggest that without effective control measures, strong outbreaks are likely in more humid climates and summer weather will not substantially limit pandemic growth. © 2020 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	climate effect; humid environment; infectivity; seasonal variation; severe acute respiratory syndrome; viral disease; Article; climate; coronavirus disease 2019; environmental monitoring; geography; human; humidity; infection control; infection resistance; infection sensitivity; pandemic; population density; priority journal; seasonal variation; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; simulation; summer; virus transmission; Betacoronavirus; computer simulation; Coronavirus infection; disease predisposition; season; theoretical model; virus pneumonia; Coronavirus; SARS coronavirus; Betacoronavirus; Climate; Computer Simulation; Coronavirus Infections; Disease Susceptibility; Humans; Humidity; Models, Theoretical; Pandemics; Pneumonia, Viral; Seasons
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/242933
作者单位	Princeton Environmental Institute, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, United States; Division of International Epidemiology and Population Studies, Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, United States
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Baker R.E.,Yang W.,Vecchi G.A.,et al. Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic[J],2020,369(6501).
APA	Baker R.E.,Yang W.,Vecchi G.A.,Metcalf C.J.E.,&Grenfell B.T..(2020).Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.Science,369(6501).
MLA	Baker R.E.,et al."Susceptible supply limits the role of climate in the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic".Science 369.6501(2020).