气候变化领域集成服务门户(CCPortal): Exit time as a measure of ecological resilience

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DOI	10.1126/science.aay4895
	Exit time as a measure of ecological resilience
	Arani B.M.S.; Carpenter S.R.; Lahti L.; Van Nes E.H.; Scheffer M.
发表日期	2021
ISSN	0036-8075
卷号	372 期号:6547
英文摘要	Ecological resilience is the magnitude of the largest perturbation from which a system can still recover to its original state. However, a transition into another state may often be invoked by a series of minor synergistic perturbations rather than a single big one. We show how resilience can be estimated in terms of average life expectancy, accounting for this natural regime of variability. We use time series to fit a model that captures the stochastic as well as the deterministic components. The model is then used to estimate the mean exit time from the basin of attraction. This approach offers a fresh angle to anticipating the chance of a critical transition at a time when high-resolution time series are becoming increasingly available. © 2021 American Association for the Advancement of Science. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	detection method; estimation method; life expectancy; article; ecosystem resilience; life expectancy; stochastic model; time series analysis
语种	英语
来源期刊	Science
文献类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://gcip.llas.ac.cn/handle/2XKMVOVA/242892
作者单位	Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management, Wageningen University, Wageningen, 6700 AA, Netherlands; Theoretical Research in Evolutionary Life Sciences, Groningen Institute for Evolutionary Life Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen, 9700 CC, Netherlands; Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706, United States; Department of Computing, University of Turku, Turku, Finland
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Arani B.M.S.,Carpenter S.R.,Lahti L.,et al. Exit time as a measure of ecological resilience[J],2021,372(6547).
APA	Arani B.M.S.,Carpenter S.R.,Lahti L.,Van Nes E.H.,&Scheffer M..(2021).Exit time as a measure of ecological resilience.Science,372(6547).
MLA	Arani B.M.S.,et al."Exit time as a measure of ecological resilience".Science 372.6547(2021).